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博彩公司和英国选举

伦敦—我曾经被视为英国和其他国家选举的神准预测家。毕竟,我曾经当过党主席。

现在,我可以坦白我的方法了。我的预测基础不是新颖的政治洞见。我不会那些与选举倾向有关的经济因素的魔法算术——尽管你我也确实认为净可支配收入和人们通常的选举倾向有一定相关性。但我自己的仍在用的技术,甚至要比仔细算计每一个选区的政治详情还要可靠。

我的做法并不十分复杂:我观察博彩公司的赔率。这种做法在去年9月的苏格兰独立公投中被证明效果显著。计票前两天,博彩公司开始支付下注苏格兰对公投说“不”的赌徒。猜一下苏格兰实际上会做出何种投票选择。

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