James Blunt/Flickr

وكلاء المراهنات والانتخابات البريطانية

لندن ــ ذات يوم، كنت أُعتَبَر متنبئاً جيداً بنتائج الانتخابات في بريطانيا وبلدان أخرى. فقد كنت رئيس حزب يوماً ما على أية حال.

والآن أستطيع أن أعترف لكم بالطريقة التي كنت أتبعها. لم يكن الأمر مبنياً على أي رؤية سياسية جديدة. ولم أكن أمتلك خوارزمية سحرية مرتبطة بعوامل اقتصادية تؤثر على نوايا التصويت ــ وإن كنت أعتقد أن هناك بعض الارتباط بين صافي الدخل القابل للتصرف وكيف يصوت الناس عادة. ولكن أسلوبي الخاص، الذي لا زلت أستخدمه، أثبت أنه يمكن التعويل عليه أكثر حتى من الدراسة المتأنية للدواخل السياسية العميقة لكل جمهور انتخابي.

الواقع أن ما أقوم به ليس متطوراً للغاية: فأنا أراقب ترجيحات وكلاء المراهنات. وقد أثبت ذلك أنه عظيم القيمة في الاستفتاء الاسكتلندي على الاستقلال في سبتمبر/أيلول الماضي. فقبل يومين من إحصاء عدد الأصوات، كان وكلاء المراهنات يدفعون للمقامرين الذين راهنوا على أن اسكتلندا سوف تصوت برفض الاستقلال. وجاء التصويت مطابقاً لذلك بالفعل.

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