英国的否定之路

圣地亚哥——如今,如果你去伦敦旅行,会发现一些奇怪的景象:英国经济越萎靡,卡梅伦政府的各位部长和保守党经济学家就越频繁地宣称严厉的支出削减政策对经济增长有利。

一些观察家将其视为一种信念(大概是对不受束缚的自由市场的优点的信仰)。其他人,比如保罗·克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman),则认为这是一种欺瞒:保守党一心想要小政府,为此不惜牺牲经济增长。

问题在于,削减支出以刺激经济到底是不是一种无信念基础的观点。答案是肯定的。事实上,这一观点存在两种类型。学术研究表明,它们在过去挺有效,比如20世纪80年代的爱尔兰和丹麦。对保守党来说,不幸的是这两次刺激性支出削减都不适用英国窘迫的现状。

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