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Theresa May Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty Images

英国的挪威解决方案

伦敦——在英国首相特雷莎·梅出人意料地决定举行“脱欧大选”不久后,我曾撰文指出英国的亲欧势力仍有可能从失败中抢回胜利。但我当时所想的时间跨度是五年,而不是五个星期。

很难预测梅还会在首相的位置上坚持多久。不仅伦敦,而且爱丁堡和贝尔法斯特的个人仇恨和拜占庭式的斗争将决定她的命运。但在预测英国脱欧谈判结果时,重要的问题已经不再是梅在政治上能否继续生存。

英国的议会考量和公众舆论究竟是赞成还是反对梅在选举前策划的“硬脱欧”——即严厉打击移民并退出欧洲关税同盟、单一市场和法律管辖范围?但如果英国人反对梅的计划,欧盟领导人能否为他们提供与挪威类似的保全颜面的妥协方案,即留在欧盟体制结构之外,但接受欧盟成员国的大部分义务和代价,以换取单一市场所带来的商业好处?

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