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La fragilità della Gran Bretagna

LONDRA – Quale paese europeo affronterà il maggior rischio d'instabilità politica e turbolenze finanziarie nell'anno a venire? A meno di una settimana dalle elezioni britanniche, che si terranno il 7 maggio prossimo, la risposta è tanto ovvia quanto sorprendente. Un tempo considerato un'oasi di stabilità politica ed economica nella giungla della crisi dell'euro, il Regno Unito si accinge a diventare lo stato membro dell'Unione europea politicamente più imprevedibile.

Di fatto, quello della continuità è l'unico risultato elettorale che si può quasi certamente escludere. A meno che i sondaggi di opinione non si rivelino del tutto sbagliati, il che sarebbe una novità assoluta per il paese, i due partiti che compongono la coalizione di governo – i conservatori del primo ministro David Cameron e i liberal-democratici – hanno quasi zero chance di ottenere una maggioranza parlamentare.

Una delle possibilità – che i sondaggi danno a poco più del 50% – è che la Gran Bretagna, paese natale del thatcherismo e alfiere europeo del neoliberismo economico, formi a breve un governo a guida laburista impegnato nel più vasto programma di aumento della pressione fiscale dagli anni '70. In più, date le peculiarità del sistema elettorale britannico e la crescente spinta del nazionalismo scozzese e gallese, la sopravvivenza di tale governo dipenderebbe dal sostegno di partiti con programmi economici ancora più radicali e l'obiettivo di smantellare il Regno Unito.

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