British flags London mall taxi Luke Hayter/Flickr

Risikoreiches Vereinigtes Königreich

LONDON – Welches europäische Land wird im kommenden Jahr mit dem größten Risiko hinsichtlich politischer Instabilität und Turbulenzen auf den Finanzmärkten konfrontiert sein? Weniger als eine Woche vor den britischen Unterhauswahlen am 7. Mai fällt die Antwort auf diese Frage sowohl deutlich als auch überraschend aus. Einst Hort politischer und wirtschaftlicher Stabilität inmitten der Wirren der Eurokrise steht Großbritannien nun davor, das politisch unberechenbarste Mitglied der Europäischen Union zu werden.

Tatsächlich ist Kontinuität als Wahlausgang beinahe sicher auszuschließen. Sofern die Meinungsumfragen nicht in einem in der britischen Geschichte beispiellosen Ausmaß danebenliegen, haben die beiden Parteien der regierenden Koalition – die Konservativen unter Premierminister David Cameron und die Liberaldemokraten – fast keine Chance, gemeinsam eine parlamentarische Mehrheit zu erringen.

Eine mögliche Folge wäre, dass Großbritannien - Wiege des Thatcherismus und Bannerträger neoliberaler Ökonomie - bald eine von der Labour Party angeführte Regierung haben wird, die sich dem umfangreichsten Steuererhöhungsprogramm seit den 1970er Jahren verschrieben hat. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit dafür liegt den Umfragen zufolge bei etwas über 50 Prozent. Das Überleben einer Labour-Regierung würde allerdings aufgrund der Besonderheiten des britischen Wahlsystems und des Aufstiegs des schottischen und walisischen Nationalismus von der Unterstützung anderer Parteien mit noch radikaleren Wirtschaftsprogrammen abhängen, die sich auch die Demontage Großbritanniens auf ihre  Fahnen heften.

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