British flags London mall taxi Luke Hayter/Flickr

Křehká Británie

LONDÝN – Která evropská země čelí v nadcházejícím roce největšímu riziku politické nestability a finančního chaosu? Necelý týden před britskými parlamentními volbami, které se uskuteční 7. května, je odpověď zjevná a zároveň překvapivá. Velká Británie, kdysi přístav politické a ekonomické stability uprostřed vřavy způsobené krizí eura, se brzy stane politicky nejméně předvídatelným členem Evropské unie.

Volebním výsledkem, který téměř jistě můžeme vyloučit, je kontinuita. Nejsou-li výzkumy veřejného mínění nepřesné tak, že to nemá v britských dějinách obdoby, pak dvě strany tvořící současnou vládní koalici, totiž konzervativci premiéra Davida Camerona a liberální demokraté, nemají téměř žádnou šanci na společný zisk parlamentní většiny.

Jedna varianta – jejíž pravděpodobnost podle průzkumů lehce přesahuje 50% – vypadá tak, že Velká Británie coby kolébka thatcherismu a nositelka hodnot neoliberální ekonomie v EU bude mít brzy vládu vedenou labouristy, která bude uskutečňovat nejrozsáhlejší program zvyšování daní od 70. let. Vzhledem ke zvláštnostem britského volebního systému a vzestupu skotského a velšského nacionalismu by navíc přežití labouristické vlády záviselo na podpoře stran s ještě radikálnějšími ekonomickými agendami a s odhodláním demontovat Spojené království.

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