卷起铺盖回家

巴黎—2008年爆发金融危机后,每隔一段时间,全球决策者就会拍手相庆,认为避免了20世纪30年代的政策失误。在大萧条经济史专家、美联储主席伯南克的领导下,他们牢记凯恩斯思想,放松货币和财政政策以避免最坏情形发生。我们至今仍在收拾预算烂摊子,特别是在欧洲。但是,2008年确实没有成为世界末日。

货币紧缩并非20世纪30年代唯一的重大政策失误;除此之外还有保护主义复燃——以30年代伊始实行的斯穆特-霍利(Smoot-Hawley)关税法案为典型代表。经济史家仍然在为斯穆特-霍利法案本身的集中性争辩不休,但随之而来的关税战破坏了贸易和经济增长,让形势雪上加霜。

如今,政客们还喜欢说,他们避免了保护主义错误,但果真是这样吗?毫无疑问,我认为短期内绝不会发生关税战,但放眼未来,可以看到不少危险的贸易信号。

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