Scotch écossais et migraines de la zone euro

LONDRES – Lequel des scénarios suivants peut-on envisager comme le plus susceptible de se produire cette année : le prononcé par référendum d’un oui de l’Écosse à la séparation par rapport au Royaume-Uni au mois de septembre prochain, ou la décision d’au moins un État membre de quitter la zone euro ? L’opinion ambiante nous amène à considérer une décision d’indépendance de l’Écosse comme possible, bien que peu probable, et l’abandon de la monnaie unique par un quelconque pays comme un dénouement fantaisiste.

Pour autant, les décisions auxquelles l’Écosse serait confrontée en termes d’arrangements monétaires dans les mois qui suivraient un vote en faveur de l’indépendance pourraient bien tout autant devoir être prises par certains des États membres de la zone euro au cours des prochaines années. En effet, il existe un lien naturel entre les deux situations.

L’éventualité d’une Écosse indépendante qui continuerait néanmoins d’utiliser la livre sterling – position officielle du gouvernement écossais – peut être appréhendée de deux manières. La première possibilité, que semble privilégier le Premier ministre écossais Alex Salmond, impliquerait une union monétaire régie par une banque centrale responsable à la fois devant l’Écosse et devant un Royaume-Uni croupion.

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