挫败欧元区

伦敦—下列哪些事件在今年更容易发生?苏格兰在9月的全民公投中决定脱离英国独立,还是至少一个国家决定离开欧元区?传统智慧表明,苏格兰独立存在可能性,但不大,而由国家脱离单一货币的可能性几乎不存在。

但苏格兰在决定独立后几个月内就要决定其货币安排,一些欧元区国家也将在未来几年中面临相同的货币决策。事实上,这两个局面之间有着天然的联系。

如果苏格兰决定继续使用英镑——苏格兰政府的官方立场正是如此——那么可以有两种实现方式。第一种可能是第一部长萨尔蒙德(Alex Salmond)所构想的,即成立一个货币联盟,其中的央行同时对苏格兰和没有了苏格兰的英国负责。

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