منطقة اليورو والحالة الاسكتلندية

لندن ــ تُرى أي من الحدثين التاليين من المرجح أن يحدث هذا العام: هل تصوت اسكتلندا للانفصال عن المملكة المتحدة في استفتاء سبتمبر/أيلول، أم أن بلداً واحداً على الأقل قد يقرر الخروج من منطقة اليورو؟ يشير الحس البديهي إلى أن استقلال اسكتلندا محتمل، وإن لم يكن أمراً مرجحاً بدرجة كبيرة، في حين يُعَد خروج أي دولة من العملة الموحدة محض خيال.

ولكن القرارات التي قد تضطر اسكتلندا إلى اتخاذها حول ترتيباتها النقدية في الأشهر التالية للتصويت لصالح الاستقلال من المرجح على الأقل أن تواجهها بعض بلدان منطقة اليورو على مدى السنوات القليلة المقبلة. والواقع أن هناك صلة طبيعية بين الموقفين.

إن استمرار اسكتلندا المستقلة في استخدام الجنيه البريطاني ــ الموقف الرسمي للحكومة الاسكتلندية ــ يمكن تناوله بطريقتين. الاحتمال الأول، والذي يبدو أن الوزير الأول أليكس سالموند يضعه في اعتباره، سوف يستلزم إقامة اتحاد نقدي في ظل بنك مركزي مسؤول أمام كل من استكتلندا وما تبقى من المملكة المتحدة.

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