brick wall Laura Gilmore/Flickr

Conclusa la Stagione dei BRICS

STANFORD – Alcuni anni fa, esperti e politici prevedevano che i paesi BRICS – Brasile, Russia, India, Cina e Sud Africa – sarebbero stati i nuovi motori della crescita globale. La semplicistica estrapolazione di una rapida crescita ha portato molte persone ad immaginare un futuro sempre più luminoso per queste economie – e, grazie a loro, anche per il resto del mondo.

Ma oggi la loro crescita sembra essersi esaurita. Le economie di Brasile e Russia si contraggono, mentre quelle di Cina e Sud Africa hanno rallentato notevolmente. Solo il tasso di crescita dell’India si è mantenuto elevato, oggi leggermente superiore a quello cinese. I BRICS saranno in grado di mantenere la loro precedente promessa? Oppure è inevitabile il persistere dei problemi?

Dato che le economie a basso reddito in genere hanno una modesta dotazione di capitale fisso (computer, fabbriche, infrastrutture) e capitale umano (istruzione e formazione) per lavoratore, esse tendono ad avere rendimenti potenziali più alti dagli investimenti di capitale. Ciò significa che possono crescere più rapidamente delle economie più ricche, fino a quando il loro reddito pro capite raggiunge lo stesso livello.

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