brick wall Laura Gilmore/Flickr

Die Blütezeit der BRICS ist vorbei

STANFORD – Vor ein paar Jahren prognostizierten Experten und politische Entscheidungsträger, dass sich die BRICS-Länder – Brasilien, Russland, Indien, China und Südafrika – zu den neuen Wachstumsmotoren der Weltwirtschaft entwickeln würden. Die naive Extrapolation des raschen Wachstums führte dazu, dass sich viele Menschen eine noch glänzendere Zukunft für diese Länder – und damit auch für den Rest der Welt – ausmalten.  

Doch nun ist die Blütezeit vorbei. Die Volkswirtschaften Brasiliens und Russlands befinden sich in der Phase der Kontraktion, während sich die Wirtschaftsentwicklung in China und Südafrika erheblich verlangsamt hat. Lediglich in Indien blieb die Wachstumsrate hoch und übertrifft mittlerweile den Wert Chinas. Werden die BRICS ihrem früheren Versprechen gerecht? Oder sind fortgesetzte Probleme unvermeidlich?

Angesichts der Tatsache, dass Ökonomien niedrigen Einkommens typischerweise über wenig Anlagevermögen (Computer, Fabriken, Infrastruktur) und Humankapital (Schul- und Berufsbildung) pro Arbeitskraft verfügen, sind dort tendenziell höhere Renditen auf Kapitalinvestitionen zu erzielen. Das heißt, bis diese Volkswirtschafen hinsichtlich des Pro-Kopf-Einkommens aufgeholt haben, können sie rascher wachsen als wohlhabendere Ökonomien.  

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