brick wall Laura Gilmore/Flickr

La fin du boom des BRICS ?

STANFORD – Il y a quelques années, à en croire les grands manitous de l'économie et les dirigeants politiques,  les BRICS (l'ensemble de pays constitué par le Brésil, la Russie, l'Inde, la Chine et l'Afrique du Sud) allaient devenir les moteurs de la croissance mondiale. Des extrapolations naïves à partir d'une croissance alors rapide ont conduit nombre d'observateurs à imaginer un futur toujours plus prometteur pour ces pays - et grâce à eux, au reste du monde.

Mais aujourd'hui il y a une certaine désillusion. Les économies du Brésil et de la Russie se contractent, tandis que celles de la Chine et de l'Afrique du Sud connaissent un fort ralentissement. Seul le taux de croissance de l'Inde reste élevé, dépassant légèrement celui de la Chine. Les BRICS vont-ils répondre aux promesses que l'on attendait d'eux ou bien les problèmes actuels persisteront-ils ?

Etant donné que les pays à faible revenu disposent généralement d'un modeste capital fixe (ordinateurs, usines et infrastructure) et d'une main d'œuvre insuffisamment éduquée et formée, la rentabilité potentielle d'un investissement y est relativement importante. Autrement dit  leur économie peut croître plus vite que celle des pays riches, jusqu'à ce que leur revenu par habitant rattrape celui des pays avancés.

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