brick wall Laura Gilmore/Flickr

مجموعة البريكس لم تعد تزهر

ستانفورد- قبل سنوات قليله كان النقاد وصناع السياسة يتوقعون بإن دول مجموعة البريكس-البرازيل وروسيا والهند والصين وجنوب افريقيا- سوف تصبح المحركات الجديدة للنمو العالمي. ان الاستقراء الساذج للنمو السريع قاد العديد من الناس لتصور مستقبل اكثر ازدهارا لتلك الاقتصادات وبفضل تلك الدول فإن بقية دول العالم سوف تصبح مزدهرة كذلك.

لكن الان الزهرة لم تعد تزهر فاقتصادات البرازيل وروسيا تنكمش بينما تباطأت اقتصادات الصين وجنوب افريقيا بشكل كبير والهند كانت الدولة الوحيدة التي حافظت على ارتفاع معدل النمو فيها حيث تجاوز ذلك المعدل الصين بشكل طفيف. هل ستفي مجموعة البريكس بوعدها السابق ؟ او هل استمرار المشاكل امر حتمي ؟

نظرا لأن الاقتصادات ذات الدخل المنخفض عادة ما يكون لديها رأس مال ثابت قليل (اجهزة الكمبيوتر والمصانع والبنية التحتيه ) ورأس مال بشري (التعليم والتدريب) للعامل ، فانها عادة ما تتمتع بعوائد محتملة اعلى على الاستثمار الرأسمالي. ان هذا يعني ان بامكانها النمو بشكل اسرع من الاقتصادات الاغنى حتى يصبح نصيب الفرد من الدخل فيها مثل تلك الاقتصادات.

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