Time Square, New York City.

“金砖国家”的谬误

马德里——最近巴西信用评级被下调至垃圾级后有大量文章预测金砖五国(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非)将就此摇摇欲坠。多么准确:幸灾乐祸总是出现在金砖国家传出噩耗之后,金砖国家曾一度被誉为世界未来的经济强国和今后主要的政治力量。

这里面有着更深层次的因素。世界对金砖国家起起落落的痴迷反映出想要找到哪个或哪些国家能取代美国成为全球领袖的愿望。但在搜索“明日之星”时,世界忽略了美国仍然是有能力领导世界并确保一定国际秩序的唯一强国。

金砖国家的故事非常熟悉。2001年其最早以技术分类的形式出现,英国经济学家吉姆·奥尼尔把上述国家(不包括南非)集中起来,并因为它们都是快速发展的新兴经济体而起了这个朗朗上口的名字。但金砖国家认识到经济实力可以转化为政治影响,于是在2006年召开了首次非正式会议,并在2009年召开了首次领导人峰会。

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