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英国退出、特朗普和全球化输家

坎布里奇—近几天来,两起政治事件吸引着全球目光——英国投票脱离欧盟议会唐纳德·特朗普的美国总统选战。这两起事件颇有些共同点。略多于一半的英国选民选择“英国退出”,其结果将对英国政治制度和经济前景造成漫长的影响。也许理解这两起事件的共同点有助于美国选民避免在11月份重蹈覆辙。

一个共同点是两起事件都被彻底低估了,特别是专家和建制派。正如英国退出的可能性在一开始没有引起重视,美国共和党和民主党的政治精英们也极少有人从一开始就认真对待特朗普要争取共和党提名的企图。

另一个类似之处是两起事件都主要以不靠谱甚至荒谬的承诺为基础。在英国,“脱欧”阵营向选民保证英国在脱离欧盟后能够继续进入单一市场,同时又可以限制欧洲工人流入英国。他们还宣称,据估计每周必须向欧盟缴纳的3.6亿英镑可以转而用于饱受缺少现金之苦的国民医疗服务体系。

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