Italy and Germany Simon Granati/Getty Images

Que la UE no espere nada bueno del Brexit

MILÁN – Hasta hace muy poco, los europeos apenas prestaban atención al referendo británico sobre la pertenencia a la Unión Europea. Ahora que la posibilidad de un “Brexit” se volvió real, están cada vez más interesados en sus derivaciones. Pero en vez de analizar seriamente los riesgos, muchos se comportan como miembros de una gran familia que está a punto de perder a un pariente rico, y se dividen mentalmente la herencia cuando todavía no se leyó el testamento.

Es lo que sucede en Italia, donde muchos esperan que la salida del Reino Unido sea una bendición inesperada; imaginan al primer ministro Matteo Renzi, decidido defensor de la UE, a la cabeza de un movimiento en pos de una Europa más integrada, con centro en una Italia próspera. Pero con esas expectativas sobrestiman considerablemente los beneficios del Brexit para el resto de la UE, a la vez que subestiman en gran medida los riesgos.

Para empezar, los exportadores italianos sufrirían el aumento de costos para el comercio con el Reino Unido (importante destino de las exportaciones de Italia), en momentos en que el país todavía se esfuerza por salir de su peor recesión desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial. La expectativa de la opinión pública de que ni el RU ni la UE se impondrán restricciones comerciales mutuas no parece convincente, dadas las tendencias proteccionistas que ayudaron al surgimiento del euroescepticismo británico y la posibilidad de que las autoridades europeas intenten disuadir a otros estados miembros de seguir el ejemplo del RU.

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