Italy and Germany Simon Granati/Getty Images

Nessun vantaggio per l’UE dalla Brexit

MILANO – Fino a poco tempo fa gli europei non prestavano molta attenzione al referendum britannico sull’appartenenza all’Unione europea, ma ora che la possibilità della “Brexit” è diventata reale sono invece sempre più logorati dalle sue implicazioni. In realtà, più che considerare seriamente gli eventuali rischi, molti europei si stanno comportando come i membri di una grande famiglia che sta per perdere un parente benestante dividendosi mentalmente l’eredità prima ancora che venga letto il testamento.

Quest’atteggiamento è senza dubbio diffuso in Italia dove molti si aspettano un guadagno dalla Brexit, con il Primo Ministro Matteo Renzi, forte sostenitore dell’UE, che spinge verso un’Europa più integrata con una prospera penisola degli Appenini al suo centro. Ma queste aspettative sovrastimano in modo significativo i benefici di un’eventuale Brexit per il resto dell’UE e ne sottostimano invece i rischi.

Innanzitutto, dei costi più elevati per gli scambi commerciali con il Regno Unito, grande importatore di prodotti italiani, danneggerebbero gli esportatori italiani in un momento in cui il paese sta con fatica cercando di uscire dalla peggiore recessione sin dalla Seconda Guerra Mondiale. L’aspettativa condivisa da molti secondo cui né il Regno Unito né l’UE imporrebbero delle restrizioni commerciali l’uno sull’altra sembra poco convincente viste le tendenze protezioniste che hanno alimentato l’euroscetticismo britannico e vista la possibilità che i politici europei tentino di dissuadere altri stati membri dal seguire l’esempio britannico.

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