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El balance del brexit

BRUSELAS – La oferta del Primer Ministro de Gran Bretaña, David Cameron, a sus ciudadanos de celebrar un referéndum sobre si salir de la Unión Europea habría podido parecer una apuesta segura hace unos años. Lo más probable es que la mayoría de la población habría votado a favor de quedarse. Eso fue antes de que la crisis griega causara estragos en la zona del euro y la llegada de centenares de miles de refugiados hiciera que la UE (aunque no el Reino Unido) perdiera el control de algunas de sus fronteras.

En realidad, Cameron podría lograr que otros dirigentes europeos accedieran a sus peticiones de reformas, sin lo cual, según ha dicho, no haría campaña a favor del mantenimiento del país en la UE. No son extremas: la garantía de que los miembros que no formen parte de la zona del euro obtengan el acceso pleno al mercado único; menos burocracia en el nivel de la UE; una exención británica respecto de una “unión más estrecha”. Su última petición –menos beneficiosa para los emigrantes de la UE– será la más difícil de aceptar para los dirigentes de la UE.

Pese a su campaña en pro de las reformas, algunos euroescépticos británicos han criticado a Cameron por mostrarse demasiado blando. La tentación de abandonar simplemente lo que parece un barco que se hunde e ir gloriosamente por libre está intensificándose en Gran Bretaña. Es comprensible. La cuestión es si el brexit sería tan glorioso como sus proponentes gustan de imaginar.

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