British flag.

Bilanz eines Brexits

BRÜSSEL – Premierminister David Camerons Angebot an die britischen Bürger, ein Referendum über den Austritt Großbritanniens aus der Europäischen Union abzuhalten, wäre noch vor einigen Jahren ein einigermaßen risikoloses Unterfangen gewesen. Damals hätte die Mehrheit wahrscheinlich für den Verbleib gestimmt. Das war bevor die Krise Griechenlands die Eurozone ins Chaos stürzte und die Ankunft hunderttausender Flüchtlinge dafür sorgte, dass die EU (obgleich nicht Großbritannien) die Kontrolle über manche ihrer Grenzen verlor.

Es könnte Cameron durchaus gelingen, andere europäische Spitzenpolitiker für seine Forderung nach Reformen zu gewinnen, ohne die er nach eigenen Angaben nicht für einen Verbleib seines Landes in der EU kämpfen würde. Diese Forderungen sind keineswegs extrem: eine Garantie, dass Nicht-Mitglieder der Eurozone vollständigen Zugang zum Binnenmarkt erhalten; weniger Bürokratie auf EU-Ebene und eine Ausnahme für Großbritannien im Hinblick auf eine „immer engere Union“.  Seine letzte Forderung – weniger Sozialleistungen für EU-Migranten - wird für die Vertreter anderer EU-Länder wohl am schwierigsten zu akzeptieren sein.  

Trotz dieser Reformbestrebungen kritisieren manche britische Euroskeptiker Cameron, eine zu weiche Linie zu verfolgen. Die Versuchung, eine Union, die als sinkendes Schiff wahrgenommen wird, einfach zu verlassen und einen glorreichen Alleingang zu wagen wird in Großbritannien zunehmend stärker. Das ist verständlich. Es stellt sich jedoch die Frage, ob ein „Brexit“ tatsächlich so glorreich wäre, wie es sich seine Verfechter vorstellen.

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