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Das Brexit-Paradoxon

MADRID – Der französische Mathematiker Blaise Pascal formulierte einst die berühmten Worte: „Es ist nicht gewiss, dass alles ungewiss sei.” Hätte er den Brexit erlebt, wäre er sich vielleicht nicht so sicher. Obwohl ein maßvolles Ergebnis nach wie vor wahrscheinlich erscheint, befanden sich in den letzten Wochen Ungewissheit und Animositäten auf dem Vormarsch. Dabei handelt es sich um das Brexit-Paradoxon: je länger es dauert, bis wieder Pragmatismus in die Debatte einkehrt, desto höher die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass die abschreckende Wirkung des Unbekannten sowohl Großbritannien als auch der Europäischen Union dauerhaften Schaden zufügt.

In diesem Monat hätte die Welt eigentlich mehr Klarheit erlangen sollen, welche Entwicklungen Großbritannien und der EU ins Haus stehen, nachdem sich das Vereinigte Königreich nun auf den Austritt vorbereitet. Doch auf der Tagung des Europäischen Rates im Oktober wurden die Brexit-Verhandlungen formell überhaupt nicht erwähnt. Dadurch traten die fehlenden Richtungsvorgaben des informellen Ratstreffens im September in Bratislava noch stärker hervor, auf dem es auch nur vage Versprechungen hinsichtlich der Einheit gab.   

In Großbritannien ist eine bittere Auseinandersetzung zwischen Premierministerin Theresa May und dem Parlament hinsichtlich dessen Rolle bei den Verhandlungen im Gange. Aber auch innerhalb von Mays Kabinett haben sich Gräben gebildet. Und die Fragen rund um Schottlands zukünftigen Status gegenüber Großbritannien und der EU rücken verstärkt in den Vordergrund.

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