Two men dressed as customs officers take part in a protest

Politics

بريكست والهاويه

Dec 26, 2017 Dominique Moisi

باريس- انا عندي صديق بريطاني لا يسافر مطلقا بدون جواز سفره الايرلندي أو على الاقل منذ يونيو 2016 عندما قامت المملكة المتحدة بالتصويت على الخروج من الإتحاد الأوروبي حيث كان يقول " على سبيل الإحتياط ، فأنت لا تعلم مطلقا ما قد يحصل ".

لقد أصبح الجواز الإيرلندي منذ بريكست مثل بوليصة التأمين ضد اللاعقلانيه ويمثل بالنسبة لصديقي على أقل تقدير إمكانية الإحتفاظ بهويته الأوروبيه وهو يعتقد أنه لو ساءت الأمور في لندن فإن دبلن ستكون البديل.

إن التحوط قد أصبح النهج المفضل لإولئك الذين يسعون الى إيجاد معنى للطلاق البريطاني من الإتحاد الأوروبي . إن الإتفاقية التي تم التوصل اليها هذا الشهر بين مفاوضي المملكة المتحدة والإتحاد الأوروبي قد زادت من حالة القلق تلك فمن جهه فإن هذا "الإختراق" يؤذن ببدء المحادثات فيما يتعلق بمفاوضات العلاقات لمرحلة ما بعد البريكست مما يجعل الإنفصال يبدو حتميا ومن جهة أخرى هناك إعتقاد أنه لا يوجد شيء قد تم إعتماده بعد وأن الحل النهائي سيأتي فقط بعد تسويه العديد من القضايا الشائكه.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 16 Comments on this article

j. von Hettlingen Dec 27, 2017

Dominique Moisi says Britain finds itself in the same situation as France in 1966. General Charles de Gaulle felt that NATO was dominated by the US and the UK, and he wanted France, while remaining a member of the military alliance, to have greater independence. That France could withdraw its forces while remaining in NATO, is because the alliance is also a political organisation. France did not leave completely and at the same time reassured its NATO partners that it would take part in the defence of Western Europe in the event of a Soviet attack. It retained forces in West Germany for this purpose.
NATO accepted this compromise, and de Gaulle withdrew France's forces from the alliance's command, starting with its Mediterranean fleet in 1959. By 1966, all French forces were removed from the integrated command and all foreign forces were told to leave France. Since NATO's military headquarters were near Paris, they had to be moved to Brussels. Moreover de Gaulle blocked Britain's entry into the Common Market. Only after his death in 1970, could Britain join in 1973.
To mark the 60th anniversary of NATO in 2009, Nicolas Sarkozy took France back in, because he was far more sympathetic to the US than many of his predecessors. He argued France was losing out by not being in the command structure. It "remained more or less bound by the constraints of other NATO members, but lacked any say in political or military decisions." So Sarkozy wanted to be more closely involved in the planning and command process.
The author says Britain "appears to be following a similar trajectory. A 'soft' Brexit will not necessarily ease the economic pain of divorce, but will undoubtedly be politically frustrating for both supporters and opponents." Even many Brexiters do not embrace a “hard” Brexit, leaving the UK stuck "between two stools." The country is deeply divided on one "existential question" - what sort of relationship Britain wants with EU - that exposes "one of the major dilemmas of democracy," one that authoritarian regimes do not face.
Brexiters won by a narrow margin. Whatever the outcome of the negotiations with the EU, it will never appease everyone. A recent study published by YouGov showed that Britons still "remain as divided on Brexit as they were when they voted last year," because their views on the EU are linked to their "education, social status, age, and geographic location." The author says however brillant the negotiators are, "there is no compromise that will close these gaps completely."
Since the "divorce bill" has been settled, the Brexit talks can go ahead. As the "two-year clock" for the UK to leave begins to tick down, the process is expected to be complex and uncertain, which "could be bad news for Britain, for Europe, and for democracy." Nobody knows what lies in store for the UK in two years. For the time being, many seem to accept Brexit as a fait accompli. The author says, the "objective, therefore, should not be to find the best solutions, but the least bad ones."
As Brexiters insist that their votes be "respected," the “Remain” camps - despite its defeatist approach - demands the assurance that the "worst" outcome has to be avoided, rejecting a "hard" Brexit, that could involve leaving without a deal in place. Yet a "soft" Brexit could involve keeping close ties with the EU, possibly through some form of membership of the European Economic Area, in return for a degree of free movement, withoug any political say. Perhaps Britain could follow France's example in 2009, which after 43 years of being a toothless lone wolf decided to rejoin NATO.
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Henk Crop Dec 27, 2017

By now everybody understands that a Brexit is damaging to both the UK and EU.
Now we are moving in a process to unravel the relationship. That can take a long time.
How stupid would you like to be ?
I have some suggestions.
For the UK. Their politicians have to tell their people they have no miracles to offer outside the EU.
For the Macron and Merkel: They have to fire Junckers & co. It was their job to keep the EU countries together and they failed. A solution should be found for the UK's dissatisfaction with unlimited immigration. Macron and Merkel should invite the UK back in the EU.
- Alisdair Hamilton-Wilkes Dec 27, 2017
  
  I have been asked on every overseas trip since June 2016 "How could Brexit be reversed?" and that has always been my conclusion.
  
  Only the Council of Ministers can make a credible offer of an alternative direction. Sadly no sign of it, rather like AJP Taylor's railway timetable.
  - Steve Hurst Dec 31, 2017
    
    Alisdair, a credible offer is a nice idea but implausible with the mentality on show. To backtrack. When there was a risk of a 15% drop in EU contributions linked to the possibility UK exit the EU response was to flatly reject any temporary cap on freedom of movement which would have stymied Brexit. If I was even remotely involved in administration of a club facing a 15% loss of funds I would have been asking what mitigation action could be taken. Instead we had banal '4 pillars of the EU' statements, many from the recent EU members who it must be noted have neither been positively contributing funds nor engaged in building the EU
    - Henk Crop Jan 1, 2018
      
      Steve. I agree these negotiations will not be easy for the UK. The EU council ( of EU presidents ) has delegated that task to the EU commission. These people are building, since 15 years, an EU of values, an almost holy project that allows no deviations from the dogma's. By the Brexit they have suffered loss in prestige and shall want to compensate that, even if it is damaging for the EU.
      My suggestion: bring in outside advisers or wait until a new EU commission is installed in 2019.
      - Alisdair Hamilton-Wilkes Jan 2, 2018
        
        Indeed, the ‘4 freedoms’ guff is the exactly the kind of stuff that associates the EU with all the stuffy, bureaucratic ‘Great Powers’ a 103 years ago and made me think of AJP Taylor’s war by timetable theory.
        
        Nobody really wants a tragic and damaging outcome but no one has the imagination or courage to avoid it. I don't see anything but deadlock on the horizon either.
        
        Long-term the EU will just grow as a burden to its members for a long time yet.
        
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  - jagjeet sinha Dec 29, 2017
    
    CLUBMED NEEDS MIRRORS
    The way we see The Anglosphere v ClubMed confrontation is :
    Since the Fall of Constantinople 1553, 20 years after First Brexit, it is 5 - 0.
    Every 100 years - Europe unionized under Spain / France/ Germany / Russia.
    Every time The Anglosphere emerges the Winner.
    Then ClubMed regroups - and this time is no different.
    Miscalculations by ClubMed always ends in tears.
    Because they never look in the mirror.
    The Truth is incontrovertible.
    The Truth is not in Latin.
    The Truth is not in The Mediterranean.
    The Truth is in The Anglosphere.
    The Trinity College @ The City-on-the-hill.
    The Truth always Triumphs.
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peterbtaylorlawyer Dec 27, 2017

Astute analysis Dominique. A driving factor however was the perfect storm of the summer and autumn immigrant crisis which engulfed Europe, brought on by Mrs Merkel’s laudable but far from populist Christianity, and, the social media effect combined with, for the first time, an abandonment by some of the convention against offering the public deliberate pure lies in a democratic choice.

All that against a false sense of British exceptionalism brought about by 25 years as Europe’s bankers and insurers, which lifted rather nation to an all time high of Olympic success and the world’s fifth largest and relatively booming economy by 2016, gave rise to a belief that ‘we are great’, we don’t need anyone, we did it all by ourselves.

The result was a significant group of people with no idea about what the EU actually is, began to believe it was a nasty expensive club that you paid billions for, and got only Syrian rapists back in return.

The fact that the EU is a relatively benign humanistic international club of similarly minded people working for mutual benefit with minimal harm doing significant good was lost.

We British will want to be back sooner than later, because you don’t know what you’ve lost till it’s gone. It’s going to be up to Europe whether we will be allowed back. I hope so, but I am still applying for my Irish passport, through the generosity of Irish multi generational family registration law, even though my great grandfather who initially earned it for me was born in 1854.

Ode to Joy is much loved in the majority of a British homes even now.
- Steve Hurst Dec 31, 2017
  
  Peter, The problem is the glorious uplift you describe did not uplift all but left a significant number behind, notably in the deindustrialised regions, the Brexit heartlands. As for migrants, firstly non-EU migrant flow to the EU is predominately economic not genuine refugees, EU free movement to the UK was noticeably higher than similar to Germany and was tacitly encouraged by Blair and Brown. Merkel's response was it would appear not humanitarian but drive by fear of photos of armed German border guards forcing unarmed migrants waving babies back behind razor wire. Further when the referendum was called Cameron was notable in failing to present both the likely damage to the City and the tax revenues issues this would create - I assume this was simply because the issue of damaged to the City was not an easy sell to those de facto damaged by the City antics. The whole thing is a dog's dinner. Junckers is like something out of Orwell's 1984 and has said himself he lies when it suits him
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Steve Hurst Dec 26, 2017

DM, You have this back to front. The question is - In view of the state of the EU and it's profound dysfunction and incoherent policy and communication - would the UK vote today to join if not a member. I think that would be a very difficult sell to make. Furthermore if the EU is such an appealing destination why are so many already camped at the terminus in Brussels expressing anxiety or in conflict with the EU thought police and Commisaire Junckers. At times it looks like people trying to escape a cult and reestablish their democratic rights. Finally with all its guff about citizens EU-wide rights and freedom of speech and democracy blah blah blah why exactly did the EU come out in support of an administration that had police beating peaceful citizens with batons when they wanted to vote.
- peterbtaylorlawyer Dec 27, 2017
  
  Mr Hurst poses a question he knows the answer to. Given the chance Remain would landslide back in by 60%. Brexit now is dead. Fanatics for Brexit here get extremely angry when a second democratic choice is considered because they know they will lose. Such is the state of our democracy now. They seem to have forgotten that in a democracy you get to change your mind as often as you like.
  - Steve Hurst Dec 31, 2017
    
    Peter, I voted Remain. I expect Brexit to go ahead. The EU does not help itself with its negative and aggressive posturing. As for democracy look to Catalonia, the V4 etc etc
    - peterbtaylorlawyer Jan 1, 2018
      
      It is crystal clear that this Brexit based on serious breaches of electoral convention, 'tell no barefaced lies' will go ahead. It is also crystal clear that it is based on a total ignorance of what the EU is. It is not a government. It cannot arrest, go to war, tax, order you to turn down your stereo, or divorce you. It cannot even dismiss a local councillor or a school teacher. It is just a bureaucratic ringmaster for a group of 28 closely aligned but friendly sovereign nations all trying to get along with each other for the common European good, and it has been excellent at it.
      
      The British people have no civic education, no political education and have been fed a sack of lies by a fascist billionaire owned rather nasty lying right wing press whose sole aim is to avoid EU tax haven legislation and hopefully turn Project UK into a low tax low wage unregulated version of Singapore. And since most UK citizens have never lived in Singapore, they do not know how bad life is there. Cloying one party dictatorship, no free press, low wage council housing for 80% of the population, pollution, and no way out.
      
      The fascists will not succeed and even if we are out in 2019 this and the next generation will suffer terribly as thirty percent of our business is trashed, the economy crashes, and in ten years or less we will be supplicants knocking on the EU door once again. Project Fear? If they had said it means no deals, $50 billion payouts, a crashed pound, a relative loss of 2 trillion in property and asset value, and dropping from 5th to 7th richest country in 18 months years before we are even out, with MUCH worse to come when we actually leave, what would you call it. Project More Horrible Truth Than We Thought?
      
      When we plead to get back in we will have to lose the pound, we will have lost our opt outs, we will no longer have the jewels of banking and insurance. We will just be an ordinary applicant member and we may even need serious structural help especially if, as i predict, in ten years, we will be heading to become an economic basket case yet again.
      
      There will be no more James Bond films, it will be a comedy series James Stupid.
      
      We will look back on 2016 as peak Britain, the golden days, and the nation will revile men and women like May, Gove, Farage, Davis and Johnson. When politicians go rogue and cripple their own nations future wealth and national health to curry favour with liars, they cannot expect to be warmly regarded in the future. And they will not...
      - Steve Hurst Jan 1, 2018
        
        Peter. Alternatively the EU may well move towards problems, but I doubt you want to hear that. Here are a few issues - demographic problems (German fertility at 1.45 for example), regional depopulation (17% youth migration out from Portugal for example), migration, well say no more, localised unemployment - up to 75% in some locations, euro induced stresses due to no automatic transfers as required in a common currency - a fundamental for sustainability, dysfunction in policy and reform (as epitomised by a member declared as undemocratic yet retaining de facto veto on policy). Increased resistance to N > S transfers and underwriting (populism, right wing growth). Ongoing issues with reform failure (France, Italy), geopolitical aspirations rather than economic trade growth, onward ever Eastwards. I would prefer a strong Europe but the chances I am afraid are the opposite direction. I suggest you watch Italy, France and Spain. France to name just one needs a 20% realignment which is impossible in the euro whilst leaving the euro is catastrophic. Castles in the air can crash to the ground, Jonathan Swift's Laputa is just a story as is EU Federalism. Regards
        
        peterbtaylorlawyer Jan 2, 2018
        
        What your misunderstanding of the EU means Mr Hurst is that the EU cannot "fail." The EU is a voluntary and democratic agreement between 28 sovereign nations.
        
        It cannot go broke, it cannot be voted out, it cannot go to war or have its people rebel and throw it out. It is NOT a state. There are 28 states democratically sending representatives to what is only a glorified club committee. I think you will agree that none of the 28 nations in the EU is in any danger of suddenly disappearing. Switzerland is in no danger of waking up one morning to find it has gone. Nor is France. Or Spain. Or any European nation.
        The only European nation that wants out, and then only as a result of mendacity, is us! And that has already changed.
        
        It is old wisdom, which Brexiteers seem to have lost. The EU is just a collection of 28 sticks. You may break one (the UK) and Brexit has already damaged it significantly while yet to even happen, but the 27 together, they will survive and there is no chance of breaking them. At all.
        
        The British people who call themselves Brexiteers think the EU is a EUSSR superstate sapping our precious sovereignty or other such utter drivel and nonsense.
        
        The EU is only a ringmaster organisation reflecting the plans, ideas and hopes of 28 very real, very wealthy, very safe, very independent and very sovereign nations, all of whom together form the most successful voluntary democratic grouping of nations, delivering the most fantastic improvements in life style and quality of life for members, ever seen in history.
        
        That does not mean everything in each nation is perfect, but the European trajectory is clear, and it is not downwards, save for us in the UK. The EU sir, is not a country or a state. The sooner we all get that the better. It is a bunch of managers we all chose, to manage a 28 nation partnership, nothing more. It is evolving and morphing to meet 500 million plus expectations all the time. Unlike our Westminster system.
        
        Our manifest stupidity knows no bounds at the present.
        
        Steve Hurst Jan 2, 2018
        
        Peter, tell that to Greece
        
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بريكست والهاويه

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