Theresa May Leon Neal/Getty Images

英国的万劫不复之路

伦敦—英国完全退欧已经从选项表中剔除。在彻底脱离欧盟之前,英国政府现在想要一个“过渡期”,在此期间,英国将保留欧元区成员的商业权利,同时继续缴纳欧元预算,遵守欧盟监管和司法裁决,允许人员自由流动。过渡期将在2019年3月——英国退欧过程的官方期限——后继续维持至少两年,也就是说,在2021年之前,英国都将是实质上的欧盟成员国,但没有任何投票权。

与此同时,英国首相梅的政府——它承诺要保持与欧洲的“深刻而特殊”的关系——将试图谈判一个新的与欧盟的“基于条约的协定”。但英国在这么短的时间内达成新条约的机会十分渺茫。

事实上,到了2021年,英国将仍然在向“悬崖边缘”运动,即完全脱离欧洲,不再准备替代安排抵御冲击。从政治上讲,这样的择时将给梅政府带来比现在更大的风险,因为下一次选举必须在2022年6月前举行。因此,英国可能会试图将过渡期延长到2022年以后。而过去的经验告诉我们,期限一旦被延长了一次,就会无休无止地一次次延长下去。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/6T2id82/zh;
  1. Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images

    The Brexit Surrender

    European Union leaders meeting in Brussels have given the go-ahead to talks with Britain on post-Brexit trade relations. But, as European Council President Donald Tusk has said, the most difficult challenge – forging a workable deal that secures broad political support on both sides – still lies ahead.

  2. The Great US Tax Debate

    ROBERT J. BARRO vs. JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS on the impact of the GOP tax  overhaul.


    • Congressional Republicans are finalizing a tax-reform package that will reshape the business environment by lowering the corporate-tax rate and overhauling deductions. 

    • But will the plan's far-reaching changes provide the boost to investment and growth that its backers promise?


    ROBERT J. BARRO | How US Corporate Tax Reform Will Boost Growth

    JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS | Robert Barro's Tax Reform Advocacy: A Response

  3. Murdoch's Last Stand?

    Rupert Murdoch’s sale of 21st Century Fox’s entertainment assets to Disney for $66 billion may mark the end of the media mogul’s career, which will long be remembered for its corrosive effect on democratic discourse on both sides of the Atlantic. 

    From enabling the rise of Donald Trump to hacking the telephone of a murdered British schoolgirl, Murdoch’s media empire has staked its success on stoking populist rage.

  4. Bank of England Leon Neal/Getty Images

    The Dangerous Delusion of Price Stability

    Since the hyperinflation of the 1970s, which central banks were right to combat by whatever means necessary, maintaining positive but low inflation has become a monetary-policy obsession. But, because the world economy has changed dramatically since then, central bankers have started to miss the monetary-policy forest for the trees.

  5. Harvard’s Jeffrey Frankel Measures the GOP’s Tax Plan

    Jeffrey Frankel, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a former member of President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers, outlines the five criteria he uses to judge the efficacy of tax reform efforts. And in his view, the US Republicans’ most recent offering fails miserably.

  6. A box containing viles of human embryonic Stem Cell cultures Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images

    The Holy Grail of Genetic Engineering

    CRISPR-Cas – a gene-editing technique that is far more precise and efficient than any that has come before it – is poised to change the world. But ensuring that those changes are positive – helping to fight tumors and mosquito-borne illnesses, for example – will require scientists to apply the utmost caution.

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now