EU flags Ian Waldie | getty images

Las dos preguntas de Brexit

MADRID – Dentro de tres meses, aproximadamente, se preguntará a los ciudadanos británicos si desean permanecer en la Unión Europea o abandonarla. Aunque solo ellos están llamados a contestar, el referéndum nos plantea –en cierto modo– dos cuestiones al resto de europeos.

En primer lugar, nos hace preguntarnos qué opción deseamos que resulte vencedora. Hay quienes han sugerido que a la Unión Europea no le interesa tener un socio como el Reino Unido. Aun sin compartir esta opinión, no podemos ser ingenuos y debemos considerar uno de sus  argumentos: aunque el resultado del referéndum fuera un sí a la permanencia, Reino Unido mantendría su intención de recuperar soberanía. Es indudable que todas las consideraciones sobre las desventajas de pertenecer a la Unión, así como las promesas sobre los beneficios de una eventual escisión, se mantendrían en el discurso y en la opinión pública. Aunque gane el “sí” a la UE, habrá un porcentaje de la población –elevado, según las previsiones– que seguirá pensando que el “no” hubiera sido mucho más deseable.

Por tanto, cabe esperar que, durante los próximos años, los límites y las condiciones a la Unión Europea estén presentes en los debates y las negociaciones, dentro y fuera de Reino Unido. A la Unión Europea no le bastaría con evitar este bache, que no es precisamente pequeño, sino que tendría que mantener durante años una labor constante de reafirmación.

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