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El Brexit y el futuro de Europa

PARIS – Nadie sabe todavía cuándo el Reino Unido presentará su calendario para negociar la salida de la Unión Europea, pero ya es evidente que el Brexit cambiará el mapa de Europa. Y, especialmente si se toma en cuenta la asombrosa falta de preparación británica para las consecuencias de su propia decisión (su estrategia, prioridades y hasta sus plazos siguen en la incertidumbre), eso significa que la UE debe comenzar a ver la mejor manera de adaptarse a la situación. Aquí se explica cómo.

Comencemos por las únicas certezas: las negociaciones del Brexit serán largas, complejas y agrias, y el divorcio tendrá efectos geopolíticos de largo alcance. El impacto inmediato es el freno al impulso de integración que ya llevaba 60 años. Europa se verá afectada también en el corto y mediano plazo, ya que probablemente en los próximos cinco años sea necesario invertir un nivel importante de energía política en el Brexit, un período en que la UE precisa de esa fuerza para afrontar sus peligros internos y externos. En el largo plazo, es probable que el Brexit acelere la salida de Europa del protagonismo de la toma de decisiones a nivel global.

El Reino Unido no podrá eludir esas consecuencias. Si bien puede abandonar la UE, no puede reubicarse físicamente fuera de Europa.

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