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Brexit e il Futuro dell’Europa

PARIGI – Non si sa ancora quando il Regno Unito presenterà un programma per la negoziazione del suo ritiro dall’Unione Europea. Ma è già chiaro che Brexit rimodellerà la mappa dell’Europa. Data soprattutto la sorprendente impreparazione della Gran Bretagna alle conseguenze della propria decisione – strategie, priorità, e tempistica restano incerte – ciò significa che la UE deve iniziare a capire come sfruttare al meglio la situazione. Ecco come.

Cominciamo con le uniche certezze: i negoziati Brexit saranno lunghi, complessi, ed aspri, e il divorzio avrà effetti geopolitici di vasta portata. L’impatto immediato è una battuta d’arresto ad un processo di integrazione che dura da 60 anni. L’Europa soffrirà nel breve e nel medio periodo, poiché è probabile che nei prossimi cinque anni si debba dedicare a Brexit un notevole impegno politico, in un momento in cui alla UE servirebbero le forze per affrontare pericoli interni ed esterni. Nel lungo periodo, Brexit rischia di accelerare l’uscita dell’Europa dai massimi livelli del processo decisionale globale.

La Gran Bretagna non sfuggirà a queste conseguenze. Sebbene essa possa lasciare l’Unione Europea, non può abbandonare l’Europa.

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