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Le Brexit et l’avenir de l’Europe

PARIS – Personne ne sait encore quand le Royaume-Uni présentera un agenda de négociation pour sa sortie de l’Union européenne. Mais il est d’ores et déjà certain que le Brexit redessinera la carte de l’Europe. Vu l’étonnant degré d’impréparation de la Grande-Bretagne – sa stratégie, ses priorités et même son calendrier demeurent vagues – l’UE doit tenter dès à présent d’imaginer le parti qu’elle peut tirer du Brexit. Voici comment.

Commençons par quelques certitudes : les négociations seront longues, complexes et acrimonieuses ; et le divorce aura des conséquences géopolitiques considérables. Dans l’immédiat, l’élan de soixante années d’intégration a été stoppé. L’Europe va souffrir, à court et à moyen terme. Une énergie politique considérable va devoir être déployée durant les cinq prochaines années pour organiser le divorce, alors même que l’UE aurait besoin de rassembler ses forces pour faire face à des périls extérieurs et intérieurs. Et à plus long terme, le Brexit accélèrera probablement la sortie de l’Europe du club restreint où se prennent les décisions de portée mondiale. Triste bilan.   

La Grande-Bretagne n’y échappera pas. Car si elle peut certes quitter l’UE, elle ne peut pas se téléporter hors d’Europe.

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