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Brexit a budoucnost Evropy

PAŘÍŽ – Nikdo stále neví, kdy Británie předloží program pro dojednání jejího odchodu z Evropské unie. Jasné už je ale to, že brexit překreslí mapu Evropy. A to znamená, zejména při omračující nepřipravenosti Spojeného království na důsledky svého vlastního rozhodnutí (nejasné zůstávají jeho strategie, priority, a dokonce harmonogram postupu), že EU musí začít přemýšlet, jak zachránit, co se dá. Tady je jak na to.

Začněme jedinými jistotami: domlouvání brexitu bude dlouhé, složité a tvrdé a rozvod bude mít dalekosáhlé geopolitické účinky. Bezprostředním dopadem je přerušení 60 let integračního spádu. Evropa také krátkodobě a střednědobě utrpí, jelikož v nadcházejících pěti letech, kdy EU bude potřebovat sílu vyrovnat se s vnitřními i vnějšími hrozbami, spotřebuje značné množství politické energie právě brexit. V dlouhodobém výhledu brexit patrně uspíší sestup Evropy z nejvyšších pater globálního rozhodování.

Ani Británie těmto důsledkům neunikne. Může sice opustit EU, ale nemůže se vystěhovat z Evropy.

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