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Do Brexit para o Futuro

NOVA IORQUE – A digestão de todas as implicações do referendo do “Brexit” no Reino Unido será difícil para a Grã-Bretanha, a Europa, e o mundo. As consequências mais profundas, claramente, dependerão da resposta da União Europeia à saída do Reino Unido. Muitas pessoas assumiram inicialmente que a UE não agiria contra os seus próprios interesses: afinal, um divórcio amigável parece ser do interesse de todos. Mas o divórcio, como acontece com muitos outros, poderá tornar-se complicado.

Os benefícios da integração comercial e económica entre o Reino Unido e a UE são mútuos, e se a UE levasse a sério a sua crença de ser preferível uma maior integração económica, os seus líderes procurariam garantir os laços mais estreitos que fosse possível, dadas as circunstâncias. Mas Jean-Claude Juncker, o arquitecto dos enormes esquemas de evasão fiscal do Luxemburgo, e actual Presidente da Comissão Europeia, está a assumir uma posição de força: “Sair significa sair”, diz.

Esta reacção intempestiva será talvez compreensível, dado que Juncker poderá ser lembrado como a pessoa que presidiu ao estágio inicial de dissolução da UE. Ele defende que, para impedir outros países de saírem, a UE deverá ser intransigente, oferecendo ao Reino Unido pouco mais do que lhe é garantido ao abrigo dos acordos da Organização Mundial do Comércio.

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