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Vom Brexit in die Zukunft

NEW YORK – Es wird lange dauern, bis Großbritannien, Europa und die Welt alle Folgen des „Brexit-“ Referendums verdaut haben werden. Die schwerwiegendsten Konsequenzen sind natürlich von der Reaktion der Europäischen Union auf den britischen Rückzug abhängig. Ursprünglich gingen die meisten Menschen davon aus, dass sich die EU „nicht ins eigene Fleisch schneiden“ würde: schließlich scheint eine freundschaftliche Trennung im besten Interesse aller Beteiligten zu sein. Dennoch könnte diese Scheidung– wie so viele – unschön verlaufen.

Großbritannien und die EU profitieren wechselseitig von den Vorteilen der Handels- und Wirtschaftsintegration. Wäre es der EU-Spitzenpolitik ernst mit ihrer Überzeugung, wonach eine engere wirtschaftliche Integration besser sei, würde sie versuchen, die engsten unter derartigen Umständen möglichen Beziehungen sicherzustellen. Aber Jean-Claude Juncker, Architekt des massiven luxemburgischen Programms zur Steuervermeidung für Unternehmen und nunmehr Präsident der Europäischen Kommission, bleibt hart: „Draußen ist draußen“, sagt er.

Diese Kurzschlussreaktion ist vielleicht verständlich, wenn man bedenkt, dass Juncker möglicherweise als jene Person in Erinnerung bleibt, die in der Anfangsphase der Auflösung an der Spitze der EU stand. Er argumentiert, dass die EU kompromisslos agieren müsste, um andere Länder von einem Austritt abzuschrecken, weswegen er Großbritannien nur wenig mehr anbietet, als im Rahmen der Abkommen der Welthandelsorganisation garantiert ist.

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