Politics

البريكسيت ومستقبل أوروبا

Jun 25, 2016 George Soros

نيويورك – فازت بريطانيا، على ما أعتقد، بأفضل الصفقات الممكنة مع الاتحاد الأوروبي، بكونها عضوا في السوق المشتركة دون الانتماء إلى اليورو، كما حصلت على عدد آخر من الامتيازات بالتحايل على قواعد الاتحاد الأوروبي. لكن ذلك لم يكن كافيا لثني الناخبين في المملكة المتحدة عن التصويت لصالح الخروج من الاتحاد الأوروبي. لماذا؟

يمكن الحصول على الإجابة من خلال استطلاعات الرأي في الأشهر التي سبقت الاستفتاء. لقد تأثُر النقاش حول البريكسيت بإشكالية الهجرة الأوروبية. واستغلت الحملة من أجل "المغادرة" وضع اللاجئين المتردية – من خلال صور مخيفة للآلاف من طالبي اللجوء المتمركزين في كاليه، الحالمين بدخول بريطانيا بأية وسيلة ضرورية – مما أثار الخوف من الهجرة "الغير منضبطة" الوافدة من الدول الأخرى الأعضاء في الاتحاد الأوروبي. وأجلت السلطات الأوروبية قرارات هامة بشأن سياسات اللاجئين من أجل تجنب أي تأثير سلبي على التصويت في الاستفتاء البريطاني، وبالتالي تنامت مشاهد الفوضى مثل التي تأّتي من كاليه.

وكان قرار المستشارة الألمانية أنجيلا ميركل لفتح أبواب بلادها على نطاق واسع للاجئين التفاتة ملهمة، ولكن لم يتم تقديمه بشكل صحيح، لأنه تجاهل عامل الجذب. وأدى التدفق المفاجئ لطالبي اللجوء إلى إزعاج حياة الناس اليومية في جميع أنحاء الاتحاد الأوروبي.

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George Soros

Writing for PS since 1997
124 Commentaries

George Soros is Chairman of Soros Fund Management and the Open Society Foundations. A pioneer of the hedge-fund industry, he is the author of many books, including The Alchemy of Finance, The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What it Means, and The Tragedy of the European Union: Disintegration or Revival? His most recent book is In Defense of Open Society (Public Affairs, 2019).

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 78 Comments on this article

Christine Constable Dec 30, 2016

The EU project is not listening to the people and Brexit was a desperate last gasp attempt to flag up the abject failure of the Brussels elite to acknowledge their failings and change course. Mr. SOros you do not have to live with the consequences of unretricted immigration your life with your wealth can be insulated against it, but for millions in Europe the implication for life xhances, quali of life and the futures of our children are under threat, immigration in the numbers the UK has had to tolerate has taken a massive toll on house prices; wage levels; undergraduate unemployment; youth debt; welfare abuse; and the drift of low skilled migrants magnifying poverty levels and making huge demands on our health and welfare systems.

One size does not fit all and the EU refuses to acknowledge that and do something about it, democracy is dying, terrorism is rife, and cultural decline is being forced on Europe by multi cultural zealotry. IF Europe is to survive as a political and economic entity, it needs to recast the whole project, focus on trade and co-operation and bett manage immigration and security. If Europe fails to address public concern and persist in ignoring the reality all around us then the EU deserves to fail, because its end game is chaos and division, not support and co-operation. I also doubt your predictions about the permanence of the UK will come to pass, the UK is more solid than the EU and that fact alone will deter erosion of the UK.
- Philip Robinson Jan 1, 2017
  
  The EU leadership team needs to have a different response to every crisis than its usual "more centralisation of power and control. I would have voted to remain had I thought there was any chance of reform without leaving. Brexit is exactly what the EU needed to shake up their attitudes, but their response is yet again centralisation of power. Let's see what happens in 2017. Happy New Year.
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The Syndicate Aug 25, 2016

"I am convinced that as the consequences of Brexit unfold in the weeks and months ahead, more and more people will join us."

So how are those consequences looking now...?
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kris veneracion Jul 19, 2016

Nice commentary . I am thankful for the details - Does someone know if I might be able to obtain a template UK 5000-EN example to fill in ?
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Richard Petersen Jul 7, 2016

I agree with the article by George Soros i.e. that the EU is flawed as it stands but we can only reform it if we have a voice within it. Britain has walked into a trap and it is a major blunder by Cameron to give in to pressure to hold a referendum. However maybe the situation can still be saved and the EU will have to carry out a restructuring including some form of fiscal union, an effective border control and replacement of Juncker. Donald Tusk was right when he said that western democratic values are at risk if Britain walks away and the rump EU starts to crumble
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Stephen Lusher Jul 3, 2016

My predisposition down the years has been to agree with George. He understands market realities better than most and, ultimately, markets decide.
On Brexit I tend to the view that the EU has weakened itself and effectively forced Britain out by diminishing it as a self governing democracy. What Greece was prepared to live with Britain would not.
Until the EU decides its business is to supervise a free, single market and withdraws to that function rather than trying to create a United States of Europe with ever closer integration that most member states will sooner or later come to reject its failure is certain.
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Sabine Meisner Jun 30, 2016

Build your fiscal union and then wait how the Germans vote...
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Barry Rosenfeld Jun 29, 2016

Soros bet on the Ukrainian oligarchs and is losing. He bet on the remain voters and lost. He seems to have trouble with short-term pain particularly when it seems to lead to long-term pain.

Common values are not lost because they are held in common. What can be more simple to understand? The EU imposed a set of rhetorical statements and passed them off as common values. They were never more than high sounding noise that masked a neo-liberal economic agenda. "We don't benefit or lose, but individuals do. Cui bono, Mr. Soros - and sayonara, EU.
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koen van peteghem Jun 29, 2016

there is no link between the uk leaving and the irriversibility of the EU disintegrating. that is not the case should a Euro country leave on top... that is why it won't happen.. as it will not disintegrate but collapse, taking the banks with it..
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Penelope Cumas Jun 29, 2016

It is extraordinary to omit the concomitant dismantling & dilution of health and social,services along with the obscene increase in wealth for the super-rich, as a cause of the disillusionment with globalism as it is currently practised. Globalism must and can be restructured to profit and not victimize what is now called "the ordinary person". As Jared Diamond has pointed out, only when the powerful and super-wealthy are adversely affected will change be possible. Perhaps the billions loss by a few super-endowed billionaires in Britain is a wake-up call. The breaking point has perhaps been reached. Immigrants, it seems, are a convenient scapegoat not only for workers facing diminishing incomes and social services, but also for bilious billionaires.
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koen van peteghem Jun 29, 2016

Soros was long on GBP.. all 5 of them..
but made gains on other positions. the 500 mio RBS, Loydds and Barclays..

to the leavers : just you know..

It wasn't the EU that privatised YOUR British Gas.
It wasn't the EU that privatised YOUR British Telecom.
It wasn't the EU that sold off YOUR power stations.
It wasn't the EU that privatised YOUR British Rail.
It wasn't the EU that privatised YOUR Royal Mail.
It wasn't the EU that privatised YOUR water industry.
It wasn't the EU that shut down the UKs coal industry.
It wasn't the EU that smashed YOUR Trade Unions.
It wasn't the EU that sold off British Steel.
It wasn't the EU that depleted Britain's social housing stock.
It wasn't the EU that underfunded education.
It wasn't the EU sold the country's gold reserves.
It wasn't the EU that handed the interest rate over to the bank of England and then failed to regulate it.
It wasn't the EU that brought in tuition fees for students.
It isn't the EU that are privatising YOUR NHS.
It isn't the EU that are cutting jobs in YOUR armed forces.
It isn't the EU that has begun privatising YOUR Police forces.

It is not the EU that caused the banking crisis
It is not the EU that pays 10 bio gpb in banking bonusses every november
It is not the EU that runs the tax havens and trust structures
It is not the EU that lobbies deregulating the City
It is not the EU that wrecked your pensions
It is not the EU that asked your boys to die in the sand chasing Rumsfeld WMD
It is not the EU that ran Abu Graib
It is not the EU that nurtured ISIS to come to fruitition
It is not the EU that invaded Ukraine
It is not the EU that supports the slaughter in Syria
It is not the EU that signed the international treaties on refugees
It is not the EU that allows Sharia to thrive in Birmingham
It is not the EU that prevents UK from having id cards
It is not the EU that that will raise taxes and cut spending
It is not the EU that made Greece not collect its taxes
It is not the EU that imposed French labour laws
It is not the EU that makes Italy Mafia country
It is not the EU that made Spanish real estate development
It is not the EU that created the base for the Palestinian situation
It is not the EU that started WWI
It is not the EU that started WW2
It is not the EU that invaded Cyprus
It is not the EU that caused the IRA
It is not the EU that caused ETA
It is not the EU that caused the Red Brigades
It is not the EU that caused Rote Armee Fraction
It is not the EU that subjected large parts of it to communist fascism
It is not the EU that squandered the UK s position at its table
It is not the EU that bungled many migrant integrations
It is not the EU that spawned racism because of it
It is not the EU that had people divorce or choose to live alone
It is not the EU that did not adress housing capacity

But the EU

Did bring peace for over 70 years
Did bring prosperity as never in history
Did bring Greece out of a dictatorship peacefully
Did bring Spain out of a dicatorship peacefully
Did bring Portugal out of dictatorship peacefully
Did help bring peace to Ireland
Did make for all to study where they want
Did make for all to travel freely
Did make for affordable travelling
Did align regulations so we can trade all over Europe
Did made it possible for the NHS to staff itself
Did save the banks

Still allows those who want to wreck it to speak.
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Tony Phillips Jun 29, 2016

To characterise UKIP as "xenophonic" is absurd. The party has championed UK withdrawal from the EU because the EU has assumed a political authority over our country that we never assented to. UKIP wants Britain to be able to make its own laws without needing Brussel's permission--that includes but is no means limited to immigration policy. UKIP is not 'anti-European' in the least, but it is anti-EU. There's a huge difference.
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Zsolt Hermann Jun 29, 2016

One must ask from Mr. Soros what "values" he means exactly? I know we keep talking about European, Western values, we take it for granted we have such things but I really would like to hear in practice what exactly are we talking about?

Here is a man for example who made his fortune from the misfortune of others, promoting and enjoying the ruthless, exclusive competition tearing societies apart.
He is a good example of a person that considers "life" a simple equation of profit, provided by markets and financial institutions.
And this is the main problem with the EU that it was also only established in order to facilitate stronger common markets and stabilize and strengthen financial institutions.

Nobody ever talked or cared about the actual people in Europe, how Greece was thrown under the train was just one example.
Brexit, the demise of Europe has nothing to do with immigration that is just one of the issues.

The problem is that the "Union" was built without foundations.
The only foundation one can build "unions", cooperation on is proper, mutually complementing human interconnections.
Through proper education people would need to understand why it is beneficial for them to integrate and exist, work mutually together, not in order to make a small minority richer, to help banks to stay afloat but because their everyday life benefits from such integration.

And they also need to be confident that they would not need to erase their individual and national identity, uniqueness to achieve such "union".
Shapeless, formless zombies are only required for a consumerist society where people are important in order to 'buy stuff".
So if Europe wants hope, they need a complete restart on completely new foundations.
- Peter Schaeffer Jun 29, 2016
  
  ZH,
  
  Clearly you don't get it. Soros represents the most important "value" Europe has... Namely, the "right" of people in gated communities to cheap labor. Soros will do anything to protect this "value" and if the people of Cologne don't like it... They can just endure the suffering they so richly deserve (according to Soros).
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Peter Schaeffer Jun 28, 2016

Here are some reasonable ideas for fixing Europe before it is too late.

1. End Schengen – Schengen has created Open Borders for terrorists and illegals. No society can survive this insanity. Illegals and terrorists must be stopped at national borders and dealt with.

2. End the Euro – The Euro has been an economic and political doomsday machine for many nations in Europe. The Euro has made Europe that prison of nations, the charnel house of nations, the concentration camp of nations. Floating exchange rates, of national currencies, provide an essential flexibility that Europe must have. The Euro has all of the flaws of the Gold Standard with several new ones added.

3. End the ECJ – The European Court of Justice has acted as the Führer of the Euroreich. The ECJ should be immediately abolished. The ECJ has successfully (so far) opposed every effort to bring sanity to illegal immigration, terrorism, etc. The endless British headlines “Bombers on Benefits” are what the ECJ really amounts to. “Human rights” for terrorists, illegals, etc… The people of Europe get Rotherham, Cologne, Charlie Hebdo, Bataclan, banlieues, tournantes, Molenbeek, Rosengård, etc.

4. Taxes – Europe should immediately impose a hedge-fund billionaires tax to finance immigration enforcement. After all, it is only fair that the advocates of Open Borders should pay for the carnage they have imposed.

5. Property – Europe should immediately utilize the property of hedge-fund billionaires to provide camps for illegals while they are being removed. The fairness of this should be obvious.

6. Truth and Reconciliation – Europe is in desperate need of a Truth and Reconciliation commission to address the horrors that Europe’s elites have imposed on the people of Europe.
- Sabine Meisner Jun 30, 2016
  
  Excellent points, Peter Schaeffer. If they only listened.
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peter fairley Jun 28, 2016

Why does Soros believe in the EU? One idiocy after another. Common currency mistake, forgiving the Greece lies to get in EU, failure to preserve Syria & Libya causing a flood of refugees, no structural changes needed, QE infinity. Layers of bureaucrats that do little that is needed but put bandaids on a badly constructed union. USA perfected their union in a much shorter period of time. Time is up. Why the surprise?
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Jose araujo Jun 28, 2016

People don’t realize that those who voted to leave because of immigrants voted right even if it was for the wrong reasons.

The construction of the European Union isn’t compatible with immigration, Portuguese, Irish, Spanish, Greeks, etc shouldn’t be forced to immigrate to other countries, the whole idea was for the development of the countries within Europe. Portugal just lost 5% of its population, and roughly 10-15% of its working force because of the European policies and lack of empathy from the European Union.

Yes immigration is a problem, but not for the countries in the receiving end. The levels of immigration we have witnessed in the past years is putting in danger the our future and the social fabric and social contracts in our countries, and the EU doesn’t even care.
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M M Jun 28, 2016

What people have been witnessing since 2008: their basic rights being taken away from them, their homes being taken away from them, their money being taken away from them, their food being taken away from them, their families being torn apart, pension and healthcare systems being taken away from them, their country being taken away from them, and the highly self-esteemed political leadership of today still think that it is still business as usual? No wonder everyone wants OUT and not only OUT of the EU.
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Michael Butcher Jun 27, 2016

A friend who voted remain has asked if I had noticed how (to his knowledge) absolutely none of the EU leaders have even remotely acknowledged that for 17 million people in one of their main countries to want to leave suggests that they might be doing something wrong? My reply was that I thought it is worse than that in that I believe those leaders wanted Brexit and calculated precisely how to take their chance when Cameron promised the referendum in order to hold his party together. They knew reform of the EU was needed but that this would undermine their goal of a federal Europe. Their main obstacle has been the UK which has opposed this goal at every turn. By refusing to negotiate EU wide reforms and by only granting UK exemptions they sent Cameron back to face his electorate naked. Then during the campaign they made a number of statements that would enrage the English - not least that they would be punished if they voted out. That said Cameron has played his hand very badly throughout, starting with his failure to make alliances with other EU states and parties that also wanted reforms, then letting Obama tell us that we would be last in the queue, and thinking that the approach that was taken towards the Scottish referendum should be replicated - a failure to understand the psychology of the English outside of London. The EU are traitors to the cause of European comity and resign, or be fired starting with Junker.
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jack lasersohn Jun 27, 2016

The central problem facing England after Brexit is that it's exports to the EU will now face (low) tariffs. The obvious question is why there are any tariffs at all and why the quid pro quo for avoiding such tariffs is an overwhelming regulation and free migration?
The reality is that tariff free trade has been the stick (or carrot) that Brussels has used to force a 'political' homogenization among EU members. But it is apparent that the pace of political integration has been too rapid for much of the population.

The obvious solution to this mess is to permit England and any others who want , to trade tariff free in a Common Market, without mandated free migration and only regulations that are narrowly tailored to the requirements of such trade.
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Gilles Michel Jun 27, 2016

Two weeks ago I attended a conference on inequalities organized by CUNY with Krugman, Mishell and Gornick. For me, this is at the core of what just happened in the UK. Grexit, US presidential elections, recent elections in Spain, Italy and Austria, all point to a grassroots revolt of Main Street against the elites in Western Democracies.
Politicians and the financial market at large need to listen. This has to be a great opportunity to trigger reforms. Societies closer to Direct Democracy like Switzerland through their Popular Initiative rights are already at work to address related issues. Executive pay, social dumping, access to education or redistribution of wealth need to be better understood and tackled if the European integration process is to be saved. I would go back to Piketty to understand the symptoms and Dennis de Rougemont to bring the European Project back to its root.
Today the E.U. lost Great Britain but might have won a soon-to-be-independent member, Scotland. That would be completely in line with de Rougemont’s thinking of a European Union driven by the strength of its Regions into a Confederated Union. Catalan region could be next.
I met U-Keep - Nigel Farange in Hong Kong in 2012 where he was speaking at an annual Asian stock market gathering organized by CLSA.
That picture fit well with a party structure where a large funding pool came from the hedge fund industry. I believe, they were mainly expressing their concern for stricter EU financial sector regulation.
In the meantime, Grexit proponents’ largest electorate comes from older, lower educated, non-urban Demographics. One should expect Farange or any other ultra-liberal to clash soon with their largest pool of supporters. They are not really calling for deregulation or smaller government but better protection against their fears. For example, and in no particular order, of a wobbling health and education system, a stagnant income growth, an ever increasing housing cost, a threatening emigration flow and a growing underemployment.
Therefore, all was not perfect in a United Kingdom where the main news wasn’t after all the Queen 90th birthday, a GDP growth and unemployment rate to choke Francois Hollande and citizens ever so reasonable and pragmatic.
All over Europe those grassroots revolts are growing.
In the meantime, societal challenges are being addressed and solutions have to represent huge investment opportunities. To agree with Dornbuch and Soros, markets are NOT efficient all the time; mispricing open investment opportunities for nimble investors who keep their cool, discipline and outlook. Now is one of this perfect hunting time.

Gilles Michel, Themavest
- Sabine Meisner Jun 30, 2016
  
  According to you, it's all about the economy (not the feeling of becoming a stranger in your own country, the lack of EU democracy etc), people who don't vote as you are dumb, and the EU tearing apart traditional countries is somehow good for the West - look up how the Holy Roman Empire looked prior to its collapse.
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Ariel Tejera Jun 27, 2016

Well, as Mr. Soros describes, things have changed quite a bit. Britain's traditional "national interest" has been, for centuries, upholding the "freedom" of global finance and trade. Now, Brexit pushes in the exact opposite direction. That's new.
- Ray Magee Jun 27, 2016
  
  Britain's "national interests" since Charles I has been freedom, not finance and trade. A free people will excel at both. When it got away from that it has always lost (1776).
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Jose araujo Jun 27, 2016

I believe that if it wasn't for the fear that was imposed upon us, 2/3 of the Europeans would want out of the EU.

We are sick of Brussels and the sinister personalities (ussually with german accent) that appear on TV telling us what to do.

Integration shouldn't resemble invasion, and appart for the Tanks the attitudes start to resemble.
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Beth White Jun 26, 2016

The position Mr. Soros takes is reasonable, to a point. His assertion that a series of poorly thought out policy decisions resulted in a panic which culminated in BREXIT is certainly plausible. But he never quite makes the next step and offers an explanation as to why the Masterminds of the EU thought the path, on which they set out, would lead to some other destination. It is this question that he should address before he suggests they be given another chance.
Central planning and control of regional economies has always had the unfortunate result of placing ideologically motivated players in charge of decisions affecting populations far removed from the ivory towers in which they craft their decisions. Somehow the idea of importing millions of Africans and Middle Easterners into the European workforce seem like a good way to augment the labor supply from comfortable offices in Brussels. But the willingness of the populations to see their cultural institutions razed in the face of an avalanche of colonists who have neither respect for the cultural norms of their hosts nor intention to assimilate, was greatly overestimated by the EU Masterminds.
But the Wizards at the EU don't quite see BREXIT as a sign that their ability to plan and execute sweeping economic and cultural changes is somehow flawed. They see it as simply a matter of resistance to enlightenment by the indigenous population. With a little help from the media, they can undermine the Luddites and put their grand plan back on its original path.
It will be interesting to watch them try.
- Marek Krol Jul 10, 2016
  
  @EJ: the people of UK have not lost their savings as long as those are priced in pounds (bank accounts, pound savings, real estate, etc). Imports have become more expensive but then UK exports have just become more competitive by the same token.
  
  No, a "little planning and a little control" are not little at all, if ECJ overturns important British laws or imposes 1175 laws on cars (literally) or 73 laws on bed sheets IIRC.
  
  People who look at facts cannot conclude that EU has worked well. Had it been capable of reforming itself (see: Greece, Ukraine, 25% unemployment in Spain, stagnation in eurozone, etc), they would have already done so.
  
  There is a flaw in human thinking called "sunk investment psychology": sticking in bad investment, marriage, job, just because those have cost us a lot instead of cutting the losses short and leaving.
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- Peter Schaeffer Jun 28, 2016
  
  EJ,
  
  "Europe" was and is little more than a corrupt scheme for the cosmopolitan elite to enrich themselves while destroying the people of Europe. Cheap labor for the gated community class. Cologne for everyone else.
  
  The people are rebelling. The elite war on the people had to end badly. It is.
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- Ed Johnson Jun 27, 2016
  
  This anti-Elite feeling is precisely the fuel the Right used to stoke Brexit foolishness. "Masterminds" "ivory towers" "Centrall planning and Control" were only a few of the FEAR and HATRED buttons they pushed to scare and outrage fleece Britons into their dreadful decision, supported by a bare majority.
  
  Now that 15% of the value of the Pound, and along with it people's savings and assets vanished overnight, and no sign of stabilization on the Horizon, they are left to wonder if maybe a little planning and a little control might not have been a better idea.
  
  #BREGRETS
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- Alisdair Hamilton-Wilkes Jun 27, 2016
  
  +1
  
  It's that damn shortage of ivory towers again.
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Colin Doyle Jun 26, 2016

We have more choices than a simple all of the UK comes OUT of the EU. Certainly it cannot be the case if Scotland both stays in the EU and in the UK. There are already parts of the UK not in the EU: the Isle of Man, Channel Islands. The leavers in Wales and England (outside London and some other cities) could take the same status as these offshore islands.

Instead of invoking article 50 for the whole country to leave, those regions of the UK that had majorities to leave could be added to Protocol 3 of the UK's 1972 Accesssion Treaty.

This currently provides, for the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands, free movement of trade, no contribution to or receipts from European funds, but not for free movement of persons or services.
See https://www.gov.im/media/624101/protocol3relationshipwiththeeu.pdf

In such case, Britain, as a national government, would stay in the EU. Single market, EU directives and free movement of people would continue to apply for the 'stay in' regions : London, Scotland, N.Ireland, Manchester, Cardiff,..... In the 'stay out' areas, it would be as now for the Isle of Man, with own laws and control on free movement.

Changes to protocol 3 need agreement from all member states and there would have to be extra negotiation on the rights of residents and students. But with the UK remaining together, we can suppose that the Spanish at least would not have a primary objection.

Our politicians now should take time and figure out all the options: absolutely resist the call from the likes of Mr Juncker for "take the pain, divorce and acrimony now". There is a concept of the Europe of the Regions - with capital R. Just it will require a flexible response from the existing EU members to apply it to this context.

A good divorce anyway needs a mediator - especially if we want, as in this idea, to go on sharing part of the house. Who can mediate in this process? Certainly needs someone with a vision for a stable, but more flexible and open Europe. Agreeing such a person (& team) should be the first step in the process of finding creative solutions. There is the particular USA interest in the delicate and important relations between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Bill Clinton was quite involved in the process that became the Good Friday agreement and the end of a bloody conflict. It will need someone similar ready to take on the job and see it through; if he is up for it, for example , John Kerry, after the handover of the current US administration.
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Robert Browne Jun 26, 2016

Project Fear was not enough to prevent "Project Realisation". Yes, we were all better off in the EEC the European Economic Community but all that changed utterly when project globalisation, project flood Europe with Africans was hatched out by faceless bureaucrats betraying European culture, coheasiveness, safety for mere salaries and duty free shopping malls in Brussels. The writing is indeed on the wall for the EU. I live in Ireland, a relative backwater in terms of population and economic clout, but we have just been forced to give planning permission for one of the biggest mosques in Europe, funded by Saudi Arabia. If this can happen in little old Ireland, I can only imagine what is afoot in Holland, Germany, France.
Ireland had zero national debt prior to entering the EU, we now have debt of more than two hundred thousand million. Other countries are in similar dire straits thanks to the total mismanagement by faceless bureaucrats 10,000 of whom earn more than the former British Prime minister.
- Peter Schaeffer Jun 28, 2016
  
  EJ,
  
  "Hatred and racism are ugly, ugly things"
  
  Maybe. However, ignoring reality is even uglier.
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- Ed Johnson Jun 27, 2016
  
  Hatred and racism are ugly, ugly things.
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Alex Lab Jun 26, 2016

I completely agree with Soros analysis. The next 'Leave' candidate will be France having elections next year. Le Pen´s electorate and the british Leave voter have much in common: the nationality of their direct neighbor(s) has much more impact on their voting than complex economical analysis. Wherever you look, might it be Denmark or Germany, Poland or Hungary etc.. immigrants appear to these voters as a threat - especially since these voters noticed that they don´t have a say in Bruxelles. But they have in their own country.

The desire 'take back control' is not a single english desire. You will find it everywhere across EU countries. It is boiling under the surface and the bubbles become bigger and bigger.

The EU did miss to implement true democratic structures where EU citizens are heard and have a say. This vacuum is now filled by populists. It might take years to reconstruct the EU - time the EU might not have.

If EU politicians don´t speak out now, name the problem and act (some should step back, resign) .. if nothing fundamental happens now, i fear, the EU will suffer badly. French FinMin Macron suggested a EU wide referendum yesterday. His intention: better going forward now in big steps than simply going on like before.
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Igor Russia Jun 26, 2016

Find two differences in the maps.
Map of Britain voting in a referendum
mapinmap.ru/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/RefUK.png
Who supervises the policy of Great Britain? Migrants or the British?
2001 year source: voprosik.net/migranty-i-demografiya-britanii/
UK - non white population:
voprosik.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Британия-популяция-не-белого-населения.gif
Britain - the percentage of migrants by shire 2001:
voprosik.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Британия-процент-всех-мигрантов-по-графствам-2001-год.jpg
Britain - blacks:
voprosik.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Британия-негры.jpg
British Muslims and Hindus:
voprosik.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Британия-мусульмане-и-индусы.jpg
British ethnic minorities in London
voprosik.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Британия-национальные-меньшинства-в-Лондоне.jpg
(Britain - ethnic minorities in London. Orange - Indians and Pakistanis. Blue - blacks. Green - White immigrants (Portuguese, Ukrainians, etc.). year 2001.)
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Igor Russia Jun 26, 2016

Hey Soros. This is your fault too. Your support of Ukraine and you call to fork out for help.
I think everyone remembers your manipulation with the British pound in 2001. Are you already back to the game for a fall?
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Yourope Is ours Jun 26, 2016

The right solution is right in front of everybody and yet nobody is willing to take the last step of a construction that has been 60 years in the making: abolish the National States and create a new single State called Europe.
Once you do that, automatically you will have representation, accountability, checks and balances and all the policies needed.
We, the Europeans, are ready for it. Millions of us already live in a country we feel like ours and yet we were not born or raised in.
Millions of us share their lives with a partner that was not born in our country, and our sons will have a clear new demographic and cultural European environment.
We just need a State that represents us.
A State called Europe.
- Alisdair Hamilton-Wilkes Jun 27, 2016
  
  I think you are right in that what you suggest would go some way to resolving the democratic deficit.
  
  Sadly you have no way of legitimising it because a plebiscite will only show that the majority of Europeans don't want it or believe it will work.
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Giovanna Vinci Jun 26, 2016

Mr. Soros, I once benefited from one of your scholarships which created for me and many other people, until the 2008 crisis, the possibility of creating very valuable, internationally acclaimed, cultural projects, for nearly a decade.
Europe is also a cultural project, there is a common Western European culture, which is a strong basis for cooperation. EU is nothing else but a valuable set of rules - the rule of law - which is designed to bring prosperity as only a good law does .
Some people of Britain decided that regulations, carefully thought and designed for the benefit of all, mean a sort of dictatorship. But they decided so after a wild process of brainwashing by clowns such as Boris (sic!) and Farage.
EU values should be - and they are - a beacon for all nations - a nucleus from which other parts of the world - from Africa to India etc. - could become more civilized and prosperous - that meaning that instead of "importing" people (as it happened last summer with the economic refugees among the real refugees) EU should export security, values, and some prosperity. It's also true that it has strong and cunning enemies such Turkey and Russia which do anything in their power to destroy our effort.
- Jose araujo Jun 27, 2016
  
  Can you please explain the rest of us how in the hell were the European institutions were carefully thought?
  
  European Central Bank is an aberration that doesn't perform central bank functions. European Parliament is another aberration being the elected organ and holding virtually no power at all.
  
  We could spend all day with examples of badly thought institutions and regulations.
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Richard Akerele Jun 26, 2016

Perhaps because I have the blood of 4 continents in me I see the need for ever greater cooperation amongst nations and citizens as we grapple with ever increasing populations and limited resources. With Brexit the Brits are attempting to do the unnatural and go back in time. Have they forgotten that 'Great Britain' came from the colonies and the immigrants that helped to build it , which is continuing today with skilled labour from Europe and the world , Not just refugees ( A task still needing to be solved and not by erecting barriers). There is a need to reorientate our thinking. Have we forgotten the 60 years of peace in Europe what price would we put on this? All said and done peace is fundematal for stability and as a consequence prosperity ! Let's not throw the baby out with the dirty bath water!
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Koen Van den Brande Jun 26, 2016

After Brexit, all of us who believe in the values and principles that the EU was designed to uphold must band together to save it by thoroughly reconstructing it.
The new EU must have leaders that are recognised by their constituents.
It must be constituted with a smaller group of leaders of sizeable regions and major cities, directly elected by anyone who chooses to associate themselves with that region, wherever they reside at the time.
Consider a group of 100 leaders, representing regions of 5 million approximately and cities of a similar size or larger.
These leaders discuss and ultimately vote for initiatives that affect all Europeans, with national parliaments subsequently obliged to debate but free to decide to implement the proposals, or not.
Flanders, where I was born, would be a natural fit.
In the UK, where I was an immigrant for twenty years, making considerable tax contributions without the right to vote, Scotland is a natural fit. As is London, which already benefits from a strong mayor.
Above all the new EU needs democratic legitimacy and a better PR team.
- Jose araujo Jun 27, 2016
  
  News Flash: Your idea of Europe is not the prevailing idea of Europe.
  
  Social Democracy and Christian democratic values have been abandoned by the EU which now is all about lowering wages and dismantling social security.
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- Giovanna Vinci Jun 26, 2016
  
  Much better PR team, indeed. The accent is put always on economy and European culture - which is unique and wonderful and a strong binder - have you heard anything? Or about making days of national products throughout Europe? Some creative projects from which people can grasp the idea what a fabulous thing EU is?
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Billy Blogs Jun 26, 2016

Many people around my age (27) living in London feel cheated, disillusioned and confused. We will have been taken out of the EU by our parents and grandparents generations but it is us and our children that need to live with the consequences.

There are also clearly stark geographical differences with London and Scotland strongly in favor for remain. It’s likely that Scotland will have another referendum and it is unlikely that whoever becomes prime minister will be able to prevent a break-up of the United Kingdom in my view (for what it’s worth). For those of us that have enjoyed London’s fantastically diverse society we are devastated that this has become threatened by broader xenophobic attitudes and London’s own independence petition, Londependence, now has over 150 thousand supporters! And to add fuel to the fire look across the pond and we have a potential Trump presidency. Wonderful.

Brexiteres did take advantage of the migration crisis and misled the public time-and-time again (look only at Farage’s Breaking Point poster). Indeed, while Brexit promised an Australian style points system to control immigration to woo voters, Daniel Hannan (MEP) fairly quickly admitted to Evan Davis in a BBC interview that free movement of labour may be a necessary condition for access to the single market. In relation to payments made to the EU, one poster read “Let’s give our NHS the £350 million the EU takes every week” and it shamelessly took Nigel Farage only hours to admit that this was a mistake and wasn’t achievable (obviously to some voters not obvious to others). It’s all about headline grabbing and worry about the facts later and we can also see this from Trump.

Yes, the EU needs reforming but further stress will only play into the hands of Putin/Erdogan. I sincerely hope that Brexit’s impact on the union is limited and we see substantial progress towards reform and democratization.
- Marek Krol Jul 10, 2016
  
  Take into account that the generation that voted UK to join EU in 1975 has now overwhelmingly voted to Leave. Perhaps in the meantime they learned how EU actually works.
  
  If EU survives, it won't be reformed, as EU officials have proven themselves systematically unwilling to consider the negative consequences of what they were doing (25% of unemployment in Spain going on for years due to eurozone; Greece; economic stagnation in eurozone).
  The past performance is the best indicator of future performance. The Eurocrats have tunnel vision.
  If EU survives and Britain stays somehow, most likely you will vote Leave in the future.
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Stephen Morris Jun 26, 2016

"Britain eventually may or may not be relatively better off than other countries by leaving the EU, but its economy and people stand to suffer significantly in the short to medium term. "

Yes, but please tell us what was the alternative?? The situation is analogous to the appeasement/resistance debate of the 1930s: short run pain (perhaps a lot of pain) or long run tyranny.

For all the fine rhetoric, the EU as it is currently constituted is an undemocratic, unaccountable institution which exists to promote Elite interests against those of the citizens. Its leaders have consistently failed to reform it even in the face of the imminent threat of British departure. Had the British rebellion been defeated on Thursday, those leaders would have had no incentive to reform anything.

If the coordinated Elite threats of savage retribution had succeeded in bringing the famously independent Britishers to heel, then what hope would there have been for anyone else. No-one else in Europe has the size or determination to take on the EU Elite in the way that Britons have done.

The people of Britain have shown enormous courage in defying a self-serving Elite. There may be pain. There may well be a lot of pain. But - God willing - the forces of Democracy will win out, and both the world and Britain (whether it remain united or as a separate England and Scotland) will be better for it.

When a bully - or in this case a clique of elite bullies - threatens one with vile retribution unless one succumbs to their tyranny, then the only strategy for long run survival is to resist.

"They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety."
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Mr. M Jun 26, 2016

Globalization is the enemy of democracy as it moves the decision powers further and further up into the hands of global (unelected) bureaucrats, and removes them away from the common man. From now on there will be stronger and stronger movements to bring back decision powers to the local communities. Globalization has run its ugly course and it will be over soon. Power to the PEOPLE!!!
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Merrill McHenry Jun 26, 2016

"Reductionist Fallacy" (Fallacy of the single cause) seems applicable to the dumb vox populi that can emerge at various times (with every generation, because "collective wisdom" and moral maturity are not cumulative across generations, a point J.G. Ballard spoke of, and IMHO).

Nice NYT story about "historian Tony Judt’s 1996 essay “A Grand Illusion?” In it, he maps out everything we are witnessing today, from the slow erosion of the welfare state to the return of nationalisms to the realization that the idea “that social and political institutions and affinities naturally and necessarily follow economic ones” is a “reductivist fallacy.”

What I call the 'celebration of ignorance' of willful blind allegiance (I've come to think may be a lazy default choice because the brain uses the body's highest disproportionately more calories Vs it's weight) feeds that reductivist fallacy of oversimplification of complex problems. (Which have a joint testing problem whereby alternate hypotheses can virtually never be chosen. Which seem to feed Judt's "Grand Illusion" of populist cyclical change.
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Louis Stouch Jun 25, 2016

Guys like George are the reason for Brexit. They think they know whats best for the proles. well, people worldwide are fed up with that. Trump 2016.
- Stephen Morris Jun 26, 2016
  
  But what alternative was there to rebellion?
  
  For all the fine rhetoric, the EU is actually an undemocratic, unaccountable institution which exists to promote Elite interests against those of the citizens. Its leaders have consistently failed to reform it even in the face of the real and imminent threat of British departure. Had the British rebellion been defeated on Thursday, those leaders would have had no incentive to reform anything.
  
  If the coordinated Elite threats of savage retribution had succeeded in bringing the famously independent Britishers to heel, then what hope would there have been for anyone else. No-one else in Europe has the size or determination to take on the EU Elite in the way that Britons have done.
  
  What was the alternative???
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- ron smith Jun 26, 2016
  
  Nice set of facts you cite to buttress your opinions. I suppose you'll be offended if I suggest that the most you have displayed is ignorance. Soros has, on the other hand, been clever enough to earn a goodly amount in the markets and beneficent enough to fund 100s of millions of businesses in the FSU. And you?
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M M Jun 25, 2016

The EU of today is not competitive, is not compatible, is dysfunctional, is inhuman, it was formed for a different era. The EU of the last decade or so has been sailing in unchartered territories without any compass or maps and without any competent captain, with limited food, limited supplies and a shortage of crew due to austerity. Brexit, if it happens, shall be the ignition but not the trigger for the disintegration of the EU. Watch this space.
- Giovanna Vinci Jun 26, 2016
  
  A lot of "arguments".
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Georges Makhtouf Jun 25, 2016

"the values and principles that the EU was designed to uphold"

Democratic accountability was evidently not one of those principles: the EU Constitution was rejected in referendums in France and Holland, so the EU elites paused for a "period of reflection", then created the Lisbon Treaty, an inter-governmental accord that did not require popular approval and incorporated most of the clauses of the rejected EU Constitution.

Mainstream opposition to the EU did not begin in Britain until the Maastricht Treaty, which tried to impose a common currency, central bank and budget/inflation policies on all EU members.

A focus on common market and "subsidiarity", the idea that the EU would not interfere in areas that could be handled by national or local governments, would have avoided the democratic deficit that resulted in Brexit.

If Brexit results in curbing the arrogance of the EUrocatic class, it will benefit the rump EU immeasurably.
- Georges Makhtouf Jun 28, 2016
  
  Jose,
  
  Since the era of Margaret Thatcher, many of the socialist tendencies in Europe to nationalize industries have gone in reverse. Not only in Britain but also in Sweden (since 1990, when the social democrats lost power, deregulation and free enterprise took hold and Sweden's growth rate leaped from near bottom in the OECD to #2 now). Germany passed the Hartz labor reforms, under a social democratic government, to weaken labor unions before the euro adoption.
  
  The socialist trend to state-owned industries, heavy state regulation of the market and powerful national labor unions has gone into reverse in the advanced economies in Europe.
  
  In any case, to the argument that votes can only count if made in "complete awareness", this would be one area in dispute with arguments on either side, so perhaps those votes would not be counted, which was the real objection in my post.
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- Jose araujo Jun 28, 2016
  
  @George I was assuming you were American, because the statement you made that"... would not have been made in complete awareness of the economic and social failures of socialism?" shows complete ignorance.
  
  For your information the majority of the most developed countries in the world are Socialists/Social Democracies, not to be confused with Communism.
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- Georges Makhtouf Jun 27, 2016
  
  "Democracy means also choosing with complete awareness"
  
  When did you make this radical redefinition of democracy? It was always one adult = one vote before.
  
  Maybe we can now use your definition to disqualify any votes for socialist parties, since they could not have been made in complete awareness of the economic and social failures of socialism?
  
  Imposing tests for "complete awareness" were one of the mechanisms to prevent black people from voting in the American South that were invalidated by the Civil Rights Act.
  
  True democracy means every adult gets one vote and they cast it as they see fit, without any reason to justify their reasoning to anyone else's satisfaction. It so happens that for Brexit, 1.3M more people thought the UK should leave the EU than stay; go try explaining to EU bureaucrats why that really does matter.
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- Jose araujo Jun 27, 2016
  
  Giovanna, a true democratic process would be to hold a referendum in Europe with a simple question that reflects our feelings.
  
  Let England stay and kick Germany out. I’m sure the result would be unanimous.
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- Giovanna Vinci Jun 26, 2016
  
  Democracy means also choosing with complete awareness. Do you think, after the recent discovery that many Brits voted against EU without knowing what it is, that brainwashed people's vote means democracy? It's the mimicking of it!
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- ron smith Jun 26, 2016
  
  While it is, at worst, easy to agree with your complaints about the so-called "elites," it will be a major surprise if the disintegration of the EU benefits the worker bees in the next two or three decades (assuming the EU disintegrates)
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Akhter Iqbal Khan Jun 25, 2016

you could have brought the change before brexit. eu did not come into existence the previous year, or decade but decades ago
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Bob Hill Jun 25, 2016

I don't understand much of the rationale for the gloom and doom.
1) Britain has means to retaliate if EU tries to give it a bad trade deal, particularly on EU agricultural imports. Plus a lot of their manufacturing is foreign-owed (e.g., BMW owning Mini). Also, one would think they can at least access general WTO MFN terms on many items.
2) I don't understand why bankers need to be located in an EU city.
3) The whole EU premise that there must be unfettered movement of labor to accompany a free trade zone was flawed--e.g., that does not exist in North American Free Trade Agmt, nor would it have been imaginable. Same is true relative to EU bureaucracy and governance. That the British would say they've had enough of those things is not surprising. It appears that other EU countries feel the same.
4) The real issues in today's international economy are (i) lack of an international system to prevent tax avoidance by multinationals (looking at you, EU members Ireland and Luxembourg), (ii) the MFN status given to repressive countries (most notably, China), and (iii) failure to create a currency system which would result in balanced trade (e.g., as reflected in China's mercantilism, under which it uses huge trade surpluses to buy up strategic assets around the world). The net effect has been almost no growth in the West, which voters see.
If Brexit frees Britain to act in an innovative way (and lead) on these issues, the short-term pain will be well worth it. More generally, Britain leaving the EU is not the worst problem the EU has today; it may not even be the worst problem Britain faces.
- Ariel Tejera Jun 27, 2016
  
  If Britain is going to wield any global power, it will probably be of an, as yet, unknown kind. Its traditional "national interest" has for centuries been upholding the "freedom" of global finance and trade. Now, Brexit pushes in the exact opposite direction. That's new. Indeed. Whatever strength Britain keeps in the field of international finance will have to move somewhere else (maybe to some virtual financial hyperspace, non-national).
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David Hackett Jun 25, 2016

The British people voted against white European immigrants and not the refugees, unless the Poles, Romanians and Germans arrived as refugees and we weren't aware.
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William Wallace Jun 25, 2016

I'm an American who has watched hatred and xenophobia amped up by opportunists who have no real idea of what they are doing. I see this has happened to the Brits. Odd that people whose empire "never saw the setting sun" are now terrified of the foreigners they used to enslave. You can't hide from the reality of the world. Your island isolates you, and in the modern world, that isn't a good thing. Good luck in the future. You will be in dire need of some good luck.
- Peter Schaeffer Jun 28, 2016
  
  WW,
  
  "hatred and xenophobia" are the new McCarthyism. Just shout "hatred and xenophobia" whenever anyone dares to challenge the "gated communities for the rich, hell for everyone else" status quo. Here are some honest words you don't want to hear..
  
  Rotherham, Bataclan, Charlie Hebdo, banlieues, tournantes, Cologne, Molenbeek, Rosengård
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- Peter Schaeffer Jun 28, 2016
  
  WW,
  
  The people of the colonized nations rebelled against their colonial masters. Now the people of Europe are revolting against foreign colonialism.
  
  You should be able to understand this.
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- ron smith Jun 26, 2016
  
  American superiority complex, perhaps? You could have ended your entire comment after "I don't understand..." You are right -- you don't.
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Steve Hurst Jun 25, 2016

'... all of us who believe in the values and principles that the EU was designed to uphold must band together to save it by thoroughly reconstructing it'

Good Luck with that, I see no sign of reform in the EU at the moment

I cannot disagree with much you have said other than the Calais situation is not a motivator with most I have talked to and whilst there is concern at the migrant crisis following Merkels open house invite that is also not a major issue. The issue is the 3 million odd EU citizens including nearly 1 million Polish who have arrived and can be expected to continue arriving at the rate of 300,000 per annum amongst other things causing a housing issue - coupled with EU rules that for example stopped a railway carriage contract being given to an UK company etc etc

I did not wish to see a Leave outcome but respect the outcome. I have no problem with other countries having referendums, what is their to complain about, the EU claims to be democratic. By all means say the public are stupid but they are not as stupid as the so called leaders

The latest example it the EU leadership demanding Article 50 is implemented forthwith by the UK, which is not their right. They are a ghastly shower and it is an echo of the behaviour with Greece
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David Myers Jun 25, 2016

There is a old English word that should be applied to elements of this article , that is bollocks

NI will not vote out of uk with a majority of unionist supporters in NI

Scotland maybe , but there costs are worse short and medium , and why would the EU want another debt economy
BOE has already stated they can't use the pound
If ref on Scotland had been extended to uk my prediction
Was England would have voted them out as drain on uk tax payers

And I agree with prev comment the uk has never been asked to vote on agreement to euro project before
1975 ref was on common market , which we agreed with , this was on the euro project which lost
As Americans will know well
No taxation without representation
The eu commissioners were unelected
And ps I have worked for eu
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stephan Edwards Jun 25, 2016

Could it possibly be that the British were tired of being ruled by Unelected Eurocrats?
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