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Las consecuencias económicas del Brexit

LONDRES – Quienes hacen campaña a favor de que Gran Bretaña abandone la Unión Europea dicen que así el país sería más libre y rico. Plantean que tras el “Brexit” se podría negociar rápidamente con la UE un acuerdo “a medida” que ofrezca todos los beneficios del libre comercio sin los costes de ser miembro, alcanzar mejores acuerdos de comercio con otros países y cosechar inmensos beneficios al deshacerse de la carga de las pesadas regulaciones de la UE. Pero no es más que una ilusión.

De hecho, el Brexit implicaría enormes costes para Gran Bretaña. La incertidumbre y las perturbaciones que acarrearía un divorcio sin duda interminable y amargo deprimirían la inversión y el crecimiento. Una separación permanente reduciría el comercio, la inversión extranjera y la migración, afectando la competencia, el aumento de la productividad y los estándares de vida. Y la “independencia” privaría al país de tener influencia sobre futuras reformas de la UE de las cuales podría beneficiarse (en particular, la conclusión de los detalles sobre el mercado único de servicios).

El Centro de Rendimiento Económico de la London School of Economics calcula que los costes a largo plazo del menor comercio con la UE podrían llegar al 9,5% del PGB, mientras que la caída de la inversión extranjera costaría un 3,4% del PGB o más. Se trata de costes que, por sí mismos, empequeñecen las potenciales ganancias del Brexit. El aporte neto de Gran Bretaña al presupuesto de la UE representó apenas un 0,35% del PGB el año pasado y eliminar las regulaciones de la UE conllevaría beneficios limitados porque los mercados laboral y de productos del Reino Unido ya se encuentran entre los más libres del mundo.

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