Germany Euro brexit Daniel Roland/Stringer/Getty Images

Brexit aus deutscher Sicht

MÜNCHEN – Am 23. Juni 2016 entscheidet eine Volksabstimmung im Vereinigten Königreich, ob das Land in der EU bleibt oder austritt. Zur Wahl gehen dürfen nur die britischen Wähler. Die Folgen werden aber in ganz Europa, ja weltweit zu spüren sein. Für Deutschland wären die Folgen eines Brexit gravierend.

Die deutsche Öffentlichkeit ist uneinig. Auf der einen Seite unterstützen viele Deutsche die britische Kritik an der EU und erwarten von einem Brexit erhebliche Nachteile für Deutschland. Vertreter der Gegenposition sagen, dass man Reisende nicht aufhalten soll – sie werfen David Cameron vor, in der EU Rosinenpickerei zu betreiben und halten einen Brexit für verschmerzbar.

Tatsächlich hat Deutschland wirtschaftlich bei einem EU-Austritt Großbritanniens sehr viel zu verlieren und so gut wie nichts zu gewinnen. Erstens würde ein Brexit die Investitionen multinationaler Unternehmen verändern. Großbritannien einen Exodus von Firmen erleben, die einen EU-Standort suchen. Dass Deutschland profitieren würde, folgt daraus aber nicht. Viele US-Unternehmen, die heute ihren EU-Standort in Großbritannien haben, werden eher ins englischsprachige Irland ausweichen. Außerdem würde die kleinere EU insgesamt weniger attraktiv als Investitionsstandort. Das würde auch Deutschland schaden. Hinzu kommt, dass Großbritannien durch weniger Regulierungen und niedrige Steuern attraktiver für Investitionsprojekte werden könnte, die nicht unbedingt in der EU angesiedelt müssen. Das würde Investitionen in Deutschland ebenfalls reduzieren.

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