city of london John Keeble/Getty Images

英国脱欧的商业面

伦敦—将近一年前,英国人以52%对48%的结果投票决定脱离欧盟。许多人预测这一投票结果将带来严重的经济波动。但到目前为止,英国经济岿然不动,尽管随着本周提前举行的大选日益临近,出现了通胀抬头影响到消费者和一些企业的迹象。问题在于,英国经济是否能够在实际“离婚”过程中安然无恙。

随着英国脱欧投票的进行,英格兰银行也改变了策略,帮助冷静了金融市场,保持了信用流动。与2008年全球金融危机期间不同,英国脱欧投票后大部分英国企业和家庭的信用成本没有上升;甚至有的还有所下降。英国消费者也在继续做他们最擅长的事情:在商店和网上花钱。家庭支出支持去年总体增长率接近2%。

金融市场的巨大变化来自英镑价值的大幅下跌。汇率贬值有利于位于英国的出口商的竞争优势。由英国工业联合会(Confederation of British Industry,我在其中担任首席经济学家)进行的4月产业趋势调查表明,制造业出口订单出现了2011年以来的最强劲增长。但这是一柄双刃剑:拜进口价格上升所赐,英国制造商也面临2011年以来最快的平均单位成本增长。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/bizK72r/zh;
  1. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    Angela Merkel’s Endgame?

    The collapse of coalition negotiations has left German Chancellor Angela Merkel facing a stark choice between forming a minority government or calling for a new election. But would a minority government necessarily be as bad as Germans have traditionally thought?

  2. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.

  3. A GrabBike rider uses his mobile phone Bay Ismoyo/Getty Images

    The Platform Economy

    While developed countries in Europe, North America, and Asia are rapidly aging, emerging economies are predominantly youthful. Nigerian, Indonesian, and Vietnamese young people will shape global work trends at an increasingly rapid pace, bringing to bear their experience in dynamic informal markets on a tech-enabled gig economy.

  4. Trump Mario Tama/Getty Images

    Profiles in Discouragement

    One day, the United States will turn the page on Donald Trump. But, as Americans prepare to observe their Thanksgiving holiday, they should reflect that their country's culture and global standing will never recover fully from the wounds that his presidency is inflicting on them.

  5. Mugabe kisses Grace JEKESAI NJIKIZANA/AFP/Getty Images

    How Women Shape Coups

    In Zimbabwe, as in all coups, much behind-the-scenes plotting continues to take place in the aftermath of the military's overthrow of President Robert Mugabe. But who the eventual winners and losers are may depend, among other things, on the gender of the plotters.

  6. Oil barrels Ahmad Al-Rubaye/Getty Images

    The Abnormality of Oil

    At the 2017 Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, the consensus among industry executives was that oil prices will still be around $60 per barrel in November 2018. But there is evidence to suggest that the uptick in global growth and developments in Saudi Arabia will push the price as high as $80 in the meantime.

  7. Israeli soldier Menahem Kahana/Getty Images

    The Saudi Prince’s Dangerous War Games

    Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is working hard to consolidate power and establish his country as the Middle East’s only hegemon. But his efforts – which include an attempt to trigger a war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon – increasingly look like the work of an immature gambler.