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Un Brexit caótico amenaza al RU

Aug 30, 2019 Philippe Legrain

LONDRES – En otros tiempos se veía en la democracia británica un modelo que imitar; pero ahora se hundió en la crisis más profunda de la que se tenga recuerdo. Está en juego no sólo la posibilidad de que el Reino Unido se vaya por las malas de la Unión Europea sin un acuerdo de salida, sino también hasta dónde un país que tuvo fama de estabilidad y moderación descenderá hacia una variante política de guerra civil.

El primer ministro Boris Johnson parece decidido a sacar al RU de la UE el 31 de octubre a cualquier costo. Las chances de un caótico Brexit sin acuerdo aumentaron drásticamente el 28 de agosto, cuando Johnson pidió la suspensión del Parlamento británico por cinco semanas entre mediados de septiembre y el 14 de octubre. Ahora a sus oponentes en el Parlamento les será mucho más difícil (pero no imposible) frustrar sus planes.

Johnson asegura que quiere llegar a un acuerdo para la salida, pero que la amenaza de irse incluso sin él es necesaria para obligar a la UE a ceder. En su opinión, restarle capacidad al Parlamento para impedir un Brexit sin acuerdo era necesario para que la amenaza fuera creíble.

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Boris’s Turn The Big Picture
Toby Melville - WPA Pool/Getty Images

Boris’s Turn

The “Britain Trump” is how the real one ineloquently described Boris Johnson, the United Kingdom’s new prime minister. If the label fits, the country could be poised precariously between disaster and catastrophe.

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Will Boris Johnson’s Political Coup Succeed?
Ludovic Marin/AFP/Getty Images

Will Boris Johnson’s Political Coup Succeed?

Anatole Kaletsky explains why the UK prime minister's move to suspend Parliament could prove to be a savvy calculation.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 9 Comments on this article

Andrew Curry Sep 1, 2019

Proposing that a previous political, economic and legal arrangement should be continued hardly merits the description of “absolutism”. Especially given: a) the closeness of the vote; b) the illegality of the Leave campaign, and the as yet unexplained ‘dark money’ involved in that illegality; c) the blatant lies told bt the Leave campaign, all of which have now been disowned by the campaigners; and d) the exclusion from the vote of several million people in both the UK and the EU who had a significant interest in the outcome.
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Daniel Esmond Aug 31, 2019

With both hardline Brexiteers and diehard Remainers having rejected the only available deal for the United Kingdom to exit the European Union, the pragmatic center is being squeezed out of British politics.

Philippe, this is not factually true. Theresa May's agreement was reject in the Parliament by the ERG and the DUP. None of the strong Remain Conservative MPs voted against the WA. So the repeated failure of passing the agreement was the responsibility of radical Brexiters who could not accept a compromise of any sorts. These were the same people who were constantly moving the goalposts, from asking for Brexit, then a hard Brexit, now a no deal Brexit.

A good deal of responsibility lies with Theresa May who did not try to build some kind of cross-party, national consensus around a withdrawal agreement that could have been acceptable to (at least) segments of the opposition parties. She prioritised the interests of her own party, adopting the rhetoric of the hardliners while trying to work for some form of compromise. Her clumsy triangulation failed when she gambled for a bigger majority in the 2017 elections and lost. What was lost at that moment was any chance of a compromise deal delivered by the centre. The extremists Brexiters won and they keep winning.
So i find it somewhat disingenuous to include Remainers in the group that is being blamed for the failure of finding a deal.
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Rachid ELAÏDI Aug 31, 2019

Il me semble qu'il existe en Grande Bretagne comme partout en Europe un problème de leadership politique. Car de quoi il s'agit,comme disait autrefois le maréchal français Foch , c'est de savoir comment se comporter à l’intérieur d'une Europe géographiquement parlant;la Grande Bretagne est au sein de l'Europe mais ces politiques sont déchirés d’un comportement qui pourrait faire le consensus politique au sein de la classe politique tout en tenant compte d’un peuple britannique à travers un vrai referendum qui devrait expliquer les tenants et les aboutissants du maintien ou non de la Grande Bretagne et d’éviter les ruses de David Cameron qui avait piéger toute la Grande Bretagne avec un referendum à la hussard en 2017. Le pouvoir politique en Grande Bretagne navigue actuellement dans les eaux troubles et donc une non démocratie . Boris Johnson n’a pas une baguette magique et il est tenu comme May à refaire un autre referendum ou de quitter l’union européenne la queue entre les jambes sans aucun accord si ce n’est de ressembler au comportement de la Suisse ou du Norvège qui ne veulent d’une telle union européenne où tout est étriqué et à tous les niveaux car il y a des courants politiques qui travaillent avec des anciennes mentalités enfantines d’avant la chute du mur de Berlin ,à l’instar Orban ou le groupe des européens de l’Est concernant l’immigration ou encore de ne pas supprimer le système de visas qui est à l’opposé de ce que peut être un État de droit qui respecte les droits de l’homme et de ne pas ironiser sur la misère des africains et des autres. Pour l’instant Boris Johnson n’est pas encore clair sur le choix politique et de neutraliser les députés de la nation ce n’est pas une solution et comme dit dans tous les manuels de la démocratie;quand il existe un blocage comme celui du BREXIT il n’ y a que le peuple qui peut trancher à travers un referendum et de refaire autant de referendum jusqu'à une clarté au niveau du seuil d’acceptation du résultat du referendum. Sinon, Boris Johnson ou Corbyn ou d’autres politiques se disputent sur les choses publiques sans que le peuple britannique sache de quoi il s’agit et dont le Brexit est une face qui apparaît de l’Icebergue . Le politique britannique n’est pas clair et à supposer que Johnson ou autre politique arrive à une solution il faut et c’est une évidence politique digne d’une démocratie,qu’il faut réorganiser un autre referendum pour donner la voix au peuple ,démocratie oblige un tel comportement ; que la Grande Bretagne souffle le chaud et le froid est une non solution que les autres dirigeants de l’Europe de l’Est s’inspirent pour entraver plus l’union européenne si on croit les dires au sein de l’union européenne qui favorise une Europe à plusieurs vitesses
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Paul Akhurst Aug 31, 2019

There seems almost no way a no-deal Brexit can be avoided without a climb down by the EU on the backstop. This possibility is rarely considered by commentators but given that no-deal equals no backstop must be something the EU has to consider seriously. The options for stopping no-deal from with the UK are fraught with difficulties and all lead, eventually, to a general election that Johnson could well win. An elected Johnson governement would be in a much stronger position to do as it pleases than the current government. Europe must therefore either reconsider its position or continue to send very strong pro-backstop signals to the UK whilst continuing to prepare for no-deal Brexit. The EU should make very clear to the UK that dishonouring elements of the exit deal such as Britain’s contribution to the EU budget will result in the UK being isolated by Europe and no post-Brexit trade deal.
- Christine Constable Aug 31, 2019
  
  Frankly we do not care. There is a whole world out there that wants our business and denying it to Europe will be a spectacular folly which will trip Europe into a massive recession, hey ho!
  
  We will not be blackmailed, bullied or otherwise abused by Europe. The more unreasonable and hectoring you are the more the British will stick their heels in and the stronger Boris Johnson will become. We are getting to a hostilities footing and room for rationality is closing.
  
  The UK will not be shackled to the Eu because of Northern Ireland. We also won't be paying any money over until we see the trade deal that is on the table.
  
  We suggest the EU start putting forward a decent offer otherwise as opinion polls have confirmed the majority support no deal and that will include no 39 Billion Pounds, we will be requiring that for our own companies.
  
  If the EU declared economic warfare on the UK it will be a decision it will live to regret.
  - Paul Akhurst Sep 12, 2019
    
    I expect the world will really respect a country that tells its largest trading partner to ‘fuck off’ and refuses to pay bills it had previously agreed to.
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Paul Akhurst Aug 31, 2019

It is too easy to say that there is no democratic mandate for a no-deal Brexit as if this justifies opposition to such a proposition. The referendum was not about the details of leaving Europe just the principle. The Leave Campaign got away with painting a rosy post-Brexit picture because the remainers failed to challenge this and offered no great vision of their own. The referedum gave politicans a manadate to leave Europe, that is is what Johnson intends to do. He may have mislead the population with his post-Brexit talk and may be doing so now, but he can claim a mandate for his intentions and those who oppose him are still failing to paint a better picture.
- Edward Laxton Aug 31, 2019
  
  Absurd. You might as well claim that the Referendum gives a democratic mandate for UK to declare war on France. No deal Brexit is not a “detail” - it runs contrary to every major Brexit leader’s statements running up to the Referendum day. I’m happy supply all the evidence of those statements. To seriously suggest all 17.4 million thought they were voting potentially for No Deal, when that was virtually ruled out by Brexit leaders..... no.
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j. von Hettlingen Aug 30, 2019

Anatole Kaletsky says Boris Johnson’s suspension of Parliament is a “coup.” But the gambler is also playing a game of brinkmanship. If Johnson succeeded, he would reach a new agreement with the EU. But, as his move has outraged many members of Parliament (MPs), they might decide to topple their tin-pot dictator, casting a vote of no confidence next week, which would amount to a “rapid” backlash, ending his political career. He would go down in Britain’s history as one of the shortest-serving prime ministers.
The author explains why Johnson may probably be “right to think that suspending Parliament has made a last-minute Brexit deal more likely.” The bone of contention is the Irish backstop, whose removal is the “one modest concession” Johnson has demanded for “an orderly and cooperative” Brexit deal, which would otherwise “tie” Britain to EU trade policies until a new permanent trade agreement is negotiated to allow an open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
The EU insists on an “insurance policy” of the backstop as the means of ensuring the integrity of the Good Friday agreement (GFA) in case a solution to the Irish border issue can not be found. However, the backstop would not come into operation before the end of the transition period. During that time Britain and the EU would have to negotiate the future trading relationship. The outcome of those deliberations will show more clearly whether a backstop is needed, and just what shape it needs to take. Some see that postponing the backstop discussions until that next phase would pose no risk to Ireland or the EU. They could still insist on a backstop as a precondition for a trading deal.
The author suggests, the onus would be on Ireland to erect the “hard border” in Northern Ireland that the backstop was designed to avoid. “Why would the Irish government prefer the certainty of putting its police and army in harm’s way immediately to protect a hard border, rather than agreeing to a compromise with Johnson that would remove the backstop at the cost of a remote possibility that a border would become necessary many years from now?” If it is as simple as the author suggests, the issue would have been resolved long ago. It is all about protecting the GFA.
Johnson can not be trusted, because he is determined to regain the support of those who have flocked to the rival, militantly anti-EU Brexit Party, led by Nigel Farage. Jeremy Corbyn has called on opposition party leaders and MPs to support a Labour-led vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson's government. The Labour leader has already proposed himself as a caretaker prime minister, using the office to prevent a no-deal Brexit from happening. He would “carry out just two tasks:” to extend the Brexit deadline and then immediately call a general election.
But many pro-EU Tories, Liberal Democrats and MPs who quit Labour in protest over Corbyn’s leadership, see him as a hardline socialist and Brexiteer. They vehemently rejected Corbyn and prefer a “less partisan figure with no personal ambitions.” Earlier this month Jo Swinson, leader of the Liberal Democrats, said Corbyn was unsuitable to be prime minister, should Johnson be successfully ousted, and suggested Labour and Conservative party grandees Harriet Harman and Ken Clarke as possible alternatives.
However, former Tory chanceller, Ken Clarke said he was prepared to back Jeremy Corbyn as caretaker prime minister. Johnson’s scorched-earth scheme has spurred his disparate opponents into overcoming their differences to stop a no-deal Brexit. Next week will be crucial for the MPs to get their act together.
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