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Allarme Brexit

BERKELEY – Non ho competenze specifiche sulla questione per cui la Gran Bretagna dovrebbe lasciare l'Unione Europea (o "Brexit"). È vero, ho vissuto nel Regno Unito fino a poco meno di un anno fa. E qui in California abbiamo il nostro dibattito simile alla Brexit, con un movimento che ha l’obiettivo di inserire nella scheda elettorale di novembre la proposta di separarsi dagli Stati Uniti. Ma mentre l'idea dell’indipendenza della California potrebbe sembrare comica, il referendum sulla Brexit del 23 giugno non è uno scherzo.

Ovviamente, la Brexit danneggerebbe la competitività delle esportazioni della Gran Bretagna. A dire il vero, i legami con l'Ue non sarebbero recisi immediatamente, e il governo britannico avrebbe un paio di anni per negoziare un accordo commerciale con il mercato unico europeo, che rappresenta quasi la metà delle esportazioni britanniche. Le autorità potrebbero strappare un accordo bilaterale come quello della Svizzera, che garantisce l'accesso al mercato unico per le industrie e settori specifici. Oppure potrebbero seguire l'esempio della Norvegia e accedere al mercato unico attraverso l'appartenenza all'Associazione europea di libero scambio.

Tuttavia la Gran Bretagna ha bisogno del mercato europeo più di quanto l'Ue abbia bisogno della Gran Bretagna, in questo modo la contrattazione sarebbe asimmetrica. E i funzionari Ue molto probabilmente condurranno delle trattative dure infatti, al fine di scoraggiare gli altri paesi ad uscire dall’Unione Europea. Il Regno Unito dovrebbe accettare le norme e i regolamenti comunitari sui prodotti, senza battere ciglio e senza dire una parola sulla loro ideazione - e si troverebbe in una posizione molto più debole al momento di negoziare gli accordi di accesso al mercato con partner extra-UE come la Cina.

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