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英国退出警报

伯克利—对于英国是否应该退出欧盟(“英国退出”)的问题,我不是专家。诚然,我在英国生活过,离开那里还不到一年。而在加利福尼亚,我们也有我们自己的类似于英国退出的争论,有一个运动提出要在11月份的选举中退出美国。加利福尼亚州独立的概念看上去滑稽可笑,但6月23日的英国退出全民公决绝非笑料。

最显而易见的是,英国退出将危害英国的出口竞争力。诚然,与欧盟的联系不会立刻切断,英国政府也将获得几年时间与欧洲单一市场(目前占英国出口的近一半)进行贸易协定谈判。有关当局可以形成一个类似于瑞士的双边协议,保证某些行业和部门进入单一市场。也可以效仿挪威的例子,通过加入欧洲自由贸易联盟进入单一市场。

但英国需要欧盟市场甚于欧盟需要英国市场,因此讨价还价是不对称的。欧盟官员可能会提出苛刻的交换条件,从而震慑其他考虑退出欧盟的国家。英国将不得不全盘接受欧盟产品标准和监管,无法对这些标准和监管置喙——并且其与非欧盟伙伴(如中国)进行市场准入协议谈判时的处境也会大大恶化。

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