Destrabando el atolladero climático

LONDRES – El 9 de julio, los líderes de las principales economías del mundo se reunirán en L'Aquila, Italia, en el Foro de las Grandes Economías (MEF, tal su sigla en inglés) para discutir los progresos hacia un nuevo acuerdo climático global. En seis meses, se supone que se sellará un convenio en Copenhague, de manera que la reunión del MEF tiene lugar en un momento vital. Cuando muchos de los mismos líderes se reunieron en abril para afrontar la crisis económica, acertadamente se comprometieron a hacer "lo que fuera necesario". El mismo espíritu tiene que animar el encuentro de L'Aquila.

Existe una enorme voluntad de que así sea. El nuevo gobierno norteamericano está respaldando una fuerte acción por parte de Estados Unidos. China se está planteando objetivos ambiciosos para reducir la intensidad de energía y hacer inversiones masivas en energía renovable. India ha presentado su propio plan de acción. Europa fijó el objetivo de reducir las emisiones en un 30% por debajo de los niveles de 1990 para 2020 si existe un acuerdo global ambicioso. Japón ha publicado sus propuestas para importantes reducciones de carbono. En todo el mundo, se han hecho compromisos.

Sin embargo, siguen existiendo desafíos prácticos. Lo que se está pidiendo es que las emisiones globales sean inferiores a la mitad de sus niveles de 1990 para 2050, después de alcanzar un pico antes de 2020. Ya que las emisiones de los países en desarrollo son, en términos generales, inferiores a las del mundo desarrollado -y tendrán que seguir aumentando en el corto plazo mientras mantienen el crecimiento económico y encaran la pobreza- se ha propuesto que los países desarrollados recorten las emisiones en por lo menos el 80% en relación a 1990 para 2050, al mismo tiempo que se toman medidas importantes para alcanzar este objetivo en la próxima década.

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