打破气候的僵局

伦敦——7月9日,世界上最大经济体的国家首脑们将在意大利的拉奎拉聚会,参加主要经济体论坛(MEF)。在会上,大家将讨论如何推进全球气候协议的达成。六个月后哥本哈根会议上,全球各国的代表们有可能达成一个新协议。如此来说,主要经济体论坛(MEF)就显得尤为重要。今年4月,同样也是这一群的领导人曾经一起讨论过经济危机的议题,在那次会上,大家一致喊出了“采取一切必要手段”的口号,本次拉奎拉会议也同样需要这样的态度。

现在,在全球气候问题上,各国都已经表现出积极配合的态度。新当选的美国政府首先表示了强烈的支持。中国也正在建立一个宏大的计划,目的是减少能源的使用和大力开发可再生能源。印度也提出了自己的行动计划表。如果全球各国能够达成一个全球协议的话,欧洲方面的目标是,到2020年欧洲的碳排放量比1990年的水平要低30%。日本也提出了减少碳排放量的提案。环顾世界,几乎每个国家都做出了一定的承诺。

但是,我们也面临着一些现实的问题。我们的目标是全球碳排放量到2020年达到最高高峰,随后到2050年将削减到不到1990年水平的一半。由于发展中国家的排放量低于发达国家——所以说,随着发展中国家的脱贫政策和经济的不断增长,在短期内碳排放量会上升——有人提议,到2050年,发达国家的碳排放量至少应该削减以达到1990年水平的80%。要实现这个目标,看来还有很多事情要做。

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