产业政策之巴西经验

圣保罗——没有多少经济理念像产业政策那样备受赞美和斥责。 研究东亚经济崛起的支持者们对其推崇备至。 而反对者则是乍闻其名就勃然大怒。 前者直指行业政策带来经济发展,而后者则坚持行业政策浪费了成百上千亿美元。

可再生燃料是(不)满意的最新演示场。 在全球范围内,用于推动洁净能源发展的公共刺激计划投资高达1840亿美元,其中美国居于首位(670亿美元),中国紧随其后(470亿美元)。 毋庸置疑,洁净能源领域也取得了一些进展——比如风能满足了丹麦20%的能源需求,在西班牙和葡萄牙总能耗中的占比也达到了15%——尽管如此,取得成功的秘诀仍然难以捉摸。

在这样的背景下,巴西20世纪70年代开始的推动可再生燃料发展的经验直接关系到今天对行业政策截然相反的观点。 一项名为Pro-álcool ”的十年期行业政策计划在可再生能源的发展中起到了关键的作用。 今天,巴西已经成为全球以生物乙醇为基础的可再生燃料最具竞争力的生产国。 乙醇占到了巴西国内轻型车燃料需求的50%以上,巴西能源巨头、拉美最大的企业之一巴西国家石油公司预测这一比例到2020年会增长到80%以上。

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