Margaret Scott

La revolución económica de Brasil

BRASILIA – Las grandes economías emergentes resultaron castigadas el año pasado, particularmente en los primeros seis meses, por la crisis en los países desarrollados -la recesión en Europa y la tenue recuperación en Estados Unidos-. Pero 2012 también será recordado como el año en el que se consolidaron cambios estructurales en la economía brasileña.

La crisis económica global que comenzó en 2008 es similar a la Gran Depresión de los años 1930 no sólo en términos de su profundidad y duración, sino también en vista de los errores y las dubitaciones en materia de políticas en los países avanzados. Es preocupante que a los líderes europeos les cueste tanto acordar sobre políticas de ajuste fiscal que dejan espacio para las medidas de estímulo necesarias para reavivar el crecimiento económico. Hasta ahora, los países europeos con margen de maniobra en materia fiscal insistieron en aplicar recortes en el gasto y la inversión, de la mano de incrementos impositivos, que redujeron la actividad económica y aumentaron el desempleo, comprometiendo en definitiva la recaudación tributaria -y, por ende, la consolidación fiscal.

En Estados Unidos, a pesar de una leve mejoría, perdura la incertidumbre. Además del riesgo planteado por el "abismo fiscal" en 2013, persiste el problema principal: la falta de políticas fiscales contracíclicas efectivas -por ejemplo, un programa de inversión pública- para estimular la actividad económica. Por el contrario, Estados Unidos apostó todo a inyectar liquidez al mercado, desatando lo que he dado en llamar una guerra de monedas, en la que los inversores globales, en busca de rendimientos más altos, se vuelcan masivamente a los países emergentes, haciendo subir sus tipos de cambio.

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