El limbo institucional del Brasil

SÃO PAULO – Los inversores internacionales están prestando mucha atención al Brasil, cuando sus ciudadanos se preparan para votar en la segunda vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales del próximo 26 de octubre. Su voto no sólo decidirá quién será el nuevo Presidente del país; también puede determinar el futuro del Banco Central del Brasil (BCB) y, por tanto, la trayectoria macroeconómica del país.

Aunque la Presidenta actual, Dilma Rousseff, apoya el marco institucional vigente del BCB, sus oponentes sostienen que la política monetaria adolece de interferencias políticas y la forma mejor de abordarlas sería concediendo una mayor autonomía al BCB, pero ningún candidato ha presentado aún una propuesta de reforma que reduzca el margen de las interferencias políticas y al tiempo garantice una mayor rendición de cuentas y fomente la estabilidad financiera. Para que el Brasil mantenga un crecimiento económico fuerte y estable, habrá que mejorar el funcionamiento del Banco Central.

La política monetaria lleva mucho tiempo desempeñando un papel importante en la política brasileña. Durante el proceso de democratización de los decenios de 1980 y 1990, los sucesivos gobiernos intentaron domeñar la hiperinflación, que llegó a ser de 2.477 por ciento en 1993. Con la introducción del “plan Real”, lanzado en 1994, se consiguió suprimir el aumento anual de los precios hasta un “aceptable” 22 por ciento en el año siguiente. Gracias al éxito del plan, su arquitecto, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, ex ministro de Economía, fue elegido dos veces Presidente (en 1994 y 1998), lo que subrayó el interés de los votantes por la estabilidad de los precios.

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