Бразилия в институциональном лимбе

САН-ПАУЛУ – Международные инвесторы внимательно наблюдают за тем, как бразильцы готовятся ко второму туру президентских выборов, назначенного на 26 октября. Их выбор определит не только имя следующего президента, но и, возможно, решит судьбу Центрального банка Бразилии (ЦББ), а значит, траекторию макроэкономического развития страны.

Действующий президент Дилма Русеф выступает за сохранение нынешнего институционального статуса ЦББ, в то время как ее оппоненты утверждают, что монетарная политика страны страдает от вмешательства политиков и что решить эту проблему можно, предоставив ЦББ больше автономии. Однако до сих пор ни один из кандидатов не предложил вариант реформы, которая бы уменьшила масштабы политического давления на банк и при этом гарантировала его большую подотчетность и способствовала финансовой стабильности в стране. Если Бразилия хочет сохранить сильный и стабильный экономический рост, ее центральному банку понадобится перестройка.

Монетарная политика давно играет важную роль в бразильской политической жизни. Во время процесса демократизации в 1980-х и 90-х несколько правительств подряд пытались справиться с гиперинфляцией, достигшей 2477% в 1993 году. Введение в действие «Плана Реал» в 1994 г. помогло снизить ежегодный рост цен до «приемлемого» уровня (22%) уже в следующем году.  Благодаря успеху этого плана, его автор, бывший министр экономики Фернанду Энрики Кардозу, дважды выигрывал президентские выборы (в 1994 и 1998 годах), сделав акцент на тревогах избирателей по поводу стабильности цен.

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