O limbo institucional brasileiro

SÃO PAULO – Investidores internacionais estão acompanhando de perto enquanto os brasileiros se preparam para votar no segundo turno das eleições, em 26 de outubro. Seus votos irão não somente decidir quem será o próximo presidente, mas também determinar o futuro do Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) e, consequentemente, a trajetória macroeconômica do país.

Enquanto a presidente Dilma Rousseff sustenta o atual desenho institucional do BCB, seus adversários argumentam que a política monetária é submetida à influência política, que seria melhor gerida dando ao Banco Central maior autonomia. Mas nenhum candidato ainda avançou uma proposta de reforma que reduza a possibilidade de interferência política e, ao mesmo tempo, assegure maior prestação de contas e responsabilização, bem como promoção da estabilidade financeira. Se o Brasil quiser crescer economicamente de maneira forte e estável, o Banco Central precisa de uma reforma.

A gestão monetária tem, há muito tempo, papel destacado na política brasileira. Durante o processo de redemocratização dos anos 1980 e 1990, sucessivos governos tentaram dominar a hiperinflação, que chegou a 2.477% em 1993. A introdução do Plano Real, lançado em 1994, conseguiu administrar o crescimento anual dos preços para um “aceitável” 22% no ano seguinte. Sustentado pelo sucesso do plano, seu arquiteto, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Ministro da Fazenda na época, foi duas vezes eleito presidente (em 1994 e 1998), enfatizando a preocupação do eleitor brasileiro em torno da estabilidade de preços.

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