Les limbes institutionnelles du Brésil

SÃO PAULO – Les investisseurs internationaux surveillent étroitement le vote des Brésiliens au second tour des élections présidentielles du 26 octobre. Leur vote ne va pas seulement décider du prochain président du pays, mais il risque également de déterminer l'avenir de la Banque Centrale du Brésil (BCB) et donc la trajectoire macroéconomique du pays.

Alors que la Présidente sortante Dilma Rousseff soutient le cadre institutionnel existant de la BCB, ses adversaires affirment que la politique monétaire est en proie à des ingérences politiques, que l'on pourrait mieux traiter en donnant la plus grande autonomie à la BCB. Mais aucun candidat n'a encore avancé une proposition de réforme capable de limiter les possibilités d'ingérence politique, tout en assurant une plus grande transparence et en favorisant la stabilité financière. Si le Brésil compte encourager une croissance économique forte et stable, la Banque centrale va devoir opérer une refonte.

La politique monétaire a longtemps joué un rôle important dans la politique brésilienne. Au cours du processus de démocratisation des années 1980-1990, les gouvernements successifs ont essayé de dompter l'hyper-inflation, qui a atteint 2 477% en 1993. L'introduction du « Real plan » lancé en 1994, a réussi à supprimer la croissance annuelle de l'indice des prix à un taux « acceptable » de 22% dès l'année suivante. Profitant de la réussite de ce plan, son architecte, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, ancien Ministre de l'Économie, a été deux fois élu Président (en 1994 et 1998), en soulignant la préoccupation des électeurs quant à la stabilité des prix.

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