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Por Qué Brasil Necesita al FMI

MONTEVIDEO – La economía brasileña se encuentra en terapia intensiva. La  crisis política que amenaza al país — la Presidenta Dilma Rousseff enfrenta un proceso de destitución por supuestas maniobras contables irregulares para disimular el déficit fiscal – plantea serias preguntas acerca de quién se hará cargo del administrar el tratamiento necesario.

La situación es ciertamente grave. La producción se está contrayendo, la recaudación fiscal flaquea, y el déficit presupuestario supera el 9% del PBI. La inflación ha superado los dos dígitos, obligando al banco central a elevar las tasas de interés — una política insostenible dada la cada vez más profunda recesión y el creciente costo de solventar los intereses de una deuda pública que crece exponencialmente.

En efecto, el súbito deterioro de las finanzas públicas de Brasil ha llevado a que el riego país sobre su deuda soberana alcance niveles similares a los argentinos. La posición de reservas internacionales, equivalente a US$370 mil millones y que hace no tanto tiempo se creía inexpugnable, es cada vez más vulnerable. Cuando se toma en cuenta el valor de los swaps de divisas (US$115 mil millones), la proporción de deuda pública a corto plazo (tanto externa como interna) cubierta por reservas internacionales cae por debajo del umbral crítico de 100 por ciento.

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