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Eine IWF-Therapie für Brasilien

MONTEVIDEO – Brasiliens Volkswirtschaft liegt auf der Intensivstation. Und seine sich verstärkende politische Krise – gegen Präsidentin Dilma Rousseff wurde nun ein Amtsenthebungsverfahren eingeleitet, weil sie unzulässige Buchhaltungstricks eingesetzt haben soll, um das Ausmaß des Haushaltsdefizites zu verschleiern – wirft ernste Fragen darüber auf, wer die dringend erforderliche Behandlung durchführen kann.

Die Situation ist eindeutig ernst. Die Produktionsleistung schrumpft, die Staatseinnahmen stocken, und das Haushaltsdefizit übersteigt 9% vom BIP. Die Inflation ist inzwischen zweistellig, was die Zentralbank zu Zinserhöhungen zwingt – ein Ansatz, der sich angesichts der sich vertiefenden Rezession und der steil steigenden Kosten für die Bedienung der rasch wachsenden brasilianischen Schulden nicht aufrechterhalten lässt.

Tatsächlich verschlechtert sich Brasiliens Kreditwürdigkeit schnell; die Zinsaufschläge für seine Staatsanleihen erreichen inzwischen argentinisches Niveau. Und die einst unangreifbar wirkende Devisenposition des Landes in Höhe von 370 Milliarden Dollar erscheint zunehmend gefährdet. Nach Abzug des nominalen Wertes der Devisen-Swaps (115 Milliarden Dollar) liegt der Anteil der kurzfristigen öffentlichen Schulden (gegenüber dem In- und Ausland), die durch die Devisenreserven abgedeckt werden, unter der kritischen Schwelle von 100%.

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