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IMF的巴西药方

蒙德维的亚—巴西经济已经进入了重症监护阶段。其严重的政治危机正在让人们深切忧虑谁能够为它提供急需的治疗。目前,总统罗塞夫正面临弹劾程序,据称她使用了非法会计手段粉饰预算赤字规模。

情况毫无疑问相当严重。产出正在收缩;财政收入日益下降;预算赤字已超过GDP的9%。通货膨胀超过了两位数,迫使央行提高利率——由于深度衰退和迅速增长的债务维持成本的日益膨胀,这一政策不具备可持续性。

事实上,巴西的信誉正在快速恶化,其主权债务的利差正在向阿根廷靠拢。其国际储备头寸为3,700亿美元,曾经貌似坚固无比,但现在看来不堪一击。当外汇互换名义值(1,150亿美元)用完时,可由国际储备覆盖的短期(对外和对内)公共债务的比重将低于100%的临界值。

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