IMF的巴西药方
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蒙德维的亚—巴西经济已经进入了重症监护阶段。其严重的政治危机正在让人们深切忧虑谁能够为它提供急需的治疗。目前，总统罗塞夫正面临弹劾程序，据称她使用了非法会计手段粉饰预算赤字规模。
情况毫无疑问相当严重。产出正在收缩；财政收入日益下降；预算赤字已超过GDP的9%。通货膨胀超过了两位数，迫使央行提高利率——由于深度衰退和迅速增长的债务维持成本的日益膨胀，这一政策不具备可持续性。
事实上，巴西的信誉正在快速恶化，其主权债务的利差正在向阿根廷靠拢。其国际储备头寸为3,700亿美元，曾经貌似坚固无比，但现在看来不堪一击。当外汇互换名义值（1,150亿美元）用完时，可由国际储备覆盖的短期（对外和对内）公共债务的比重将低于100%的临界值。
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