brazil protest Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

巴西的阿根廷时刻

坎布里奇—巴西经济出现了断崖式暴跌,这是多年来经济管理不当和大面积腐败丑闻的结果。经济管理不当和大面积腐败丑闻吞噬了巴西的政治和商业建制派——现在眼看着快要将第二任总统拉下马了。在政治和经济动荡时期,你很难专注于政策发展,但事实仍然是,巴西如果想要打好可是增长的基础,就必须克服基本挑战。而最大的基本挑战就是财政萎靡。

很容易认为,巴西过多的政府融资长期以来一直拖累的经济。政府支出占GDP之比高达36%,是收入水平相近国家中最高的。多年来的财政放纵导致巴西积累了巨大的社会安全负债,而大宗商品价格低迷又大大放大的问题——现在还要加上政治危机——债务现已达到GDP的70%左右,政府不堪重负。财政状况告急导致融资利率高企,这反过来让财政状况更加危险:更高的利息支付是巴西和同类国家之间的利差的最大原因。

在这样的背景下,巴西国民议会试图重振市场信心,在去年12月批准了前所未有的宪法修正案,为非利息政府支出设置了一个至少为期十年的上限,这个上限与前一年的通货膨胀率挂钩。如果能够坚持贯彻的话,这一支出上限将保证,只要国民收入能够取得真实增长,政府(除利息支出外的)占国民收入之比就将下降。国际货币基金组织(IMF)当时予以热烈支持,称之为可能的财政“局面改变因素”。

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